Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination
AbstractWe present a theoretical framework for policy making based on the â€œimpossible trinityâ€ or the â€œtrilemmaâ€ hypothesis. A simple optimization model shows that placing more weight in terms of preference for each of the three open macroeconomic policiesâ€”exchange rate stability, financial market openness, and monetary policy independenceâ€”contributes to a higher level of achievement in that particular policy. We then develop the first empirical framework in the literature to investigate the joint determination of the triad open macroeconomic policies based on the trilemma hypothesis. Specifically, we estimate the three policy indexes under the trilemma constraint that they must add up to a constant. By applying the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimation method and employing other robustness checks, we demonstrate that simple economic and structural fundamentals determine the trilemma policy combinations. Last, we examine how deviations from the â€œoptimalâ€ trilemma policy combinations evolve around the time of a financial crisis. Policy combinations seem to violate the trilemma constraint when a currency, banking, or debt crisis breaks out. These findings suggest that deviations from the trilemma hypothesis would create policy stress, which would have to manifest itself in a crisis unless policy makers adjust the policy combination in a way consistent with the trilemma constraint.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 23967.
Date of creation: Jan 2014
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impossible trinity; trilemma hypothesis; exchange rate stability; financial market openness; monetary policy independence; trilemma policy combination; trilemma constraint;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- O24 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-03-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2014-03-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MON-2014-03-15 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2014-03-15 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
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