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Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities

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  • Scharnagl, Michael
  • Schumacher, Christian

Abstract

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)based on predictive likelihoods provides a framework that allows for the estimation of inclusion probabilities of a particular variable, that is the probability of that variable being in the forecast model. A novel aspect of the paper is the discussion of group-wise inclusion probabilities, which helps to address the empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application, we consider about thirty monetary and non-monetary indicators for inflation. Using this data, BMA provides inclusion probabilities and weights for Bayesian forecast combination. The empirical results for euro area data show that monetary aggregates and non-monetary indicators together play an important role for forecasting inflation, whereas the isolated information content of both groups is limited. Forecast combination can only partly outperform single-indicator benchmark models. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2007,09.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5573

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Keywords: inflation forecasting; monetary indicators; Bayesian Model Averaging; inclusion probability;

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References

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  1. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth," Working Papers 235, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pär Österholm & Helge Berger, 2008. "Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," IMF Working Papers 08/76, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Pär Österholm & Helge Berger, 2008. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," IMF Working Papers 08/53, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Berger, Helge & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The information content of money in forecasting Euro area inflation," Discussion Papers 2008/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  4. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money growth granger-cause inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from output-of-sample forecasts using Bayesian VARs," Discussion Papers 2008/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  5. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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