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Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics

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  • Barbara Roffia
  • Andrea Zaghini

Abstract

This paper analyses the short-run impact of periods of strong monetary growth on inflation dynamics for 15 industrialized economies. We find that when robust money growth is accompanied by large increases in stock and house prices and loose credit conditions, the probability of recording an inflationary outburst over a three-year horizon is significantly increased. In contrast, significant money stock expansions that are not associated with sustained credit increases and strong dynamics in other asset prices seem to be less likely to have inflationary consequences and are thus less worrying from a policy perspective. Copyright 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal International Finance.

Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 241-280

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Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:10:y:2007:i:3:p:241-280

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Cited by:
  1. Goknur Umutlu & Yilmaz Yildız, 2011. "The Effect of Global Liquidity on Macroeconomic Parameters," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 167-181, September.
  2. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Fighting consumer price inflation in Africa. What do dynamics in money, credit, efficiency and size tell us?," MPRA Paper 41553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Sousa, Joao Miguel & Zaghini, Andrea, 2007. "Global monetary policy shocks in the G5: A SVAR approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 403-419, December.
  5. Berlemann, Michael & Freese, Julia, 2010. "Monetary policy and real estate prices: A disaggregated analysis for Switzerland," HWWI Research Papers 2-19, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  6. Kulaksizoglu, Tamer & Kulaksizoglu, Sebnem, 2009. "The U.S. Excess Money Growth and Inflation Relation in the Long-Run: A Nonlinear Analysis," MPRA Paper 23780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Martin Cihák & Katerina Smídková & Ales Bulir, 2008. "Writing Clearly: ECB's Monetary Policy Communication," IMF Working Papers 08/252, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth & Ralph Setzer, 2008. "Sowing the seeds for the subprime crisis: does global liquidity matter for housing and other asset prices?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 403-424, December.
  9. Emil Stavrev & Helge Berger, 2008. "The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation," IMF Working Papers 08/166, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Hoffmann, Andreas, 2009. "Fear of depression - Asymmetric monetary policy with respect to asset markets," MPRA Paper 17522, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth, 2007. "Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0037, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  12. Giovanni Lombardo & David Vestin, 2007. "Welfare implications of Calvo vs. Rotemberg pricing assumptions," Working Paper Series 770, European Central Bank.
  13. Saumitra, Bhaduri & Raja, Sethudurai, 2012. "A note on excess money growth and inflation dynamics: evidence from threshold regression," MPRA Paper 38036, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Bohl , Martin T & Mayes , David G & Siklos, Pierre L, 2009. "The quality of monetary policy and inflation performance: globalization and its aftermath," Research Discussion Papers 31/2009, Bank of Finland.

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