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Identifying asset price booms and busts with quantile regressions

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  • José Ferreira Machado
  • João Sousa

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for detecting asset price booms and busts using non-parametric quantile regressions. The method consists in estimating the distribution of real stock prices as a function of fundamental determinants of stock returns, namely real economic activity and real interest rates. It is shown that changes in fundamentals affect not only the location but also the shape of the conditional distribution of stock prices. Asset price booms and busts are identified as realizations on the tails of that distribution. Then we use several indicators to analyse the behaviour of money and credit around the boom and bust episodes.

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File URL: http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/WP200608.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w200608.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200608

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  1. Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: Evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 259-306, July.
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Cited by:
  1. James Hansen, 2011. "Does Equity Mispricing Influence Household and Firm Decisions?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2011-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2009. "Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit," Working Paper Series 1068, European Central Bank.
  3. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Lenarčič, Andreja & Roffia, Barbara, 2012. "An alternative method for identifying booms and busts in the euro area housing market," Working Paper Series 1493, European Central Bank.
  4. Saumitra, Bhaduri & Raja, Sethudurai, 2012. "A note on excess money growth and inflation dynamics: evidence from threshold regression," MPRA Paper 38036, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Adalid, Ramón & Detken, Carsten, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0732, European Central Bank.
  6. de Bondt, Gabe & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2010. "Booms and busts in China's stock market: Estimates based on fundamentals," Working Paper Series 1190, European Central Bank.
  7. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1173, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
  9. Nuno Alves & Carlos Robalo Marques & João Sousa, 2007. "Is the euro area M3 abandoning us?," Working Papers w200720, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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