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Excess money growth and inflation dynamics

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Author Info
Barbara Roffia () (European Central Bank, DG Economics)
Andrea Zaghini () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

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Abstract

The paper analyzes the short-run impact of periods of strong monetary growth on inflation dynamics for 15 industrialized economies. We find that when robust money growth is accompanied by large increases in stock and house prices and loose credit conditions, the probability of recording an inflationary outburst over a three-year horizon is significantly increased. In contrast, significant money stock expansions which are not associated with sustained credit increases and strong dynamics in other asset prices seem to be less likely to have inflationary consequences and thus, less worrying from a policy perspective.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 657.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_657_08

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; money growth; quantity theory of money;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christoffer Kok Sørensen & Jung-Duk Lichtenberger, 2007. "Mortage interest rate dispersion in the euro area," Working Paper Series 733, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules - what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series 745, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2006. "Transaction Costs and Informational Cascades in Financial Markets: Theory and Experimental Evidence," WEF Working Papers 0008, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Luca Benati & Haroon Mumtaz, 2007. "U.S. evolving macroeconomic dynamics - a structural investigation," Working Paper Series 746, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lucia Cuadro Sáez & Marcel Fratzscher & Christian Thimann, 2007. "The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets," Working Paper Series 724, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Riccardo Calcagno & Florian Heider, 2007. "Market based compensation, price informativeness and short-term trading," Working Paper Series 735, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Barbara Roffia, 2007. "The Eurosystem, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan - similarities and differences," Working Paper Series 742, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Henrique S. Basso & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Marius Jurgilas, 2007. "Financial dollarization - the role of banks and interest rates," Working Paper Series 748, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Giovanni Lombardo & David Vestin, 2007. "Welfare implications of Calvo vs. Rotemberg pricing assumptions," Working Paper Series 770, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Joao Miguel Sousa & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Global Monetary Policy Shocks in the G5: a SVAR Approach," CEIS Research Paper 89, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hoffmann, Andreas, 2009. "Fear of depression - Asymmetric monetary policy with respect to asset markets," MPRA Paper 17522, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Antje Berndt & Iulian Obreja, 2007. "The pricing of risk in European credit and corporate bond markets," Working Paper Series 805, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth, 2007. "Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0037, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  6. Martin Cihák & Katerina Smídková & Ales Bulir, 2008. "Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication," IMF Working Papers 08/252, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jiri Podpiera, 2007. "Policy rate decisions and unbiased parameter estimation in typical monetary policy rules," Working Paper Series 771, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrea Mercatanti, 2008. "A likelihood-based analysis for relaxing the exclusion restriction in randomized experiments with imperfect compliance," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 683, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jukka Jalava & Ilja Kristian Kavonius, 2007. "Durable goods and their effect on household saving rations in the euro area," Working Paper Series 755, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Philipp Engler & Michael Fidora & Christian Thimann, 2007. "External imbalances and the US current account - how supply-side changes affect an exchange rate adjustment," Working Paper Series 761, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth & Ralph Setzer, 2008. "Sowing the seeds for the subprime crisis: does global liquidity matter for housing and other asset prices?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 403-424, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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