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A Flexible Tool for Model Building: the Relevant Transformation of the Inputs Network Approach (RETINA)

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Author Info
Teodosio Perez-Amaral () (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Economía Cuantitativa)
Giampiero M. Gallo () (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti")
Halbert L. White () (University of California, San Diego, Department of Economics)

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Abstract

A new method, called relevant transformation of the inputs network approach (RETINA) is proposed as a tool for model building and selection. It is designed to improve on some of the shortcomings of neural networks. RETINA has the flexibility of neural network models, the concavity of the likelihood in the weights of the usual linear models, and the ability to identify a parsimonious set of attributes that are likely to be relevant for predicting out of sample outcomes. It achieves flexibility by considering transformations of the original inputs; it splits the sample into three disjoint subsamples, sorts the candidate regressors by a saliency feature, chooses the models in subsample 1, uses subsample 2 for parameter estimation, and uses subsample 3 for cross-validation. It is modular, can be used as a data exploratory tool, and is computationally feasible in personal computers. In tests on simulated data, it achieves high rates of successes when the sample size or the R2 are large enough. As our experiments show, it is superior to alternative procedures such as the non-negative garrote and backward stepwise regression.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti" in its series Econometrics Working Papers Archive with number wp2003_04.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 14 Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2003_04

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Related research
Keywords: Model selection; cross-validation; flexible modelling; information criteria; forecasting.;

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  1. Massimiliano Marinucci & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2005. "Econometric Modeling of Business Telecommunications Demand using RETINA and Finite Mixtures," Econometrics 0505003, EconWPA, revised 14 May 2005. [Downloadable!]
  2. Doppelhofer, G. & Weeks, M., 2005. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marcin Blazejowski & Pawel Kufel & Tadeusz Kufel, . "Automatic Procedure of Building Congruent Dynamic Model in Gretl," EHUCHAPS, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística). [Downloadable!]
  4. Darné, O. & Brunhes-Lesage, V., 2007. "L’Indicateur Synthétique Mensuel d’Activité (ISMA) : une révision," Documents de Travail 171, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gernot Doppelhofer & Xavier Sala I Martin & Melvyn Weeks, 2005. "Jointness of Determinants of Economics Growth," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 54, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B., 2008. "Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model," Documents de Travail 222, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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