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On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression This article was published online on 30 March 2009. An error was subsequently identified. This notice is included in the online and print versions to indicate that both have been corrected [6 April 2009]

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Author Info

  • Eduardo Ley

    (The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA)

  • Mark F.J. Steel

    (Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, UK)

Abstract

We consider the problem of variable selection in linear regression models. Bayesian model averaging has become an important tool in empirical settings with large numbers of potential regressors and relatively limited numbers of observations. We examine the effect of a variety of prior assumptions on the inference concerning model size, posterior inclusion probabilities of regressors and on predictive performance. We illustrate these issues in the context of cross-country growth regressions using three datasets with 41-67 potential drivers of growth and 72-93 observations. Finally, we recommend priors for use in this and related contexts. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 24 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 651-674

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:24:y:2009:i:4:p:651-674

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References

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  1. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2006. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4063, The World Bank.
  3. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2010. "Is God in the Details? A Reexamination of the Role of Religion in Economic Growth," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 11-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  4. Chris Papageorgiou & Winford H. Masanjala, . "Initial Conditions, European Colonialism and Africa's Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2006-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
  5. Min, C.K. & Zellner, A., 1992. ""Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Methods for Combining Models and Forecasts with Applications to Forecasting International Growth Rates"," Papers 90-92-23, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  6. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 235-322.
  7. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
  8. Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2005. "Growth Empirics under Model Uncertainty: Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 05/18, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Doppelhofer, G. & Weeks, M., 2005. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. David J. Nott & Robert Kohn, 2005. "Adaptive sampling for Bayesian variable selection," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(4), pages 747-763, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 2011. "Mixtures of g-priors for bayesian model averaging with economic applications," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws112116, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  2. João Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Eveidence from the euro area, the U.K and the U.S," NIPE Working Papers 21/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  3. Roman Horváth & Kateøina Šmídková & Jan Zápal & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Dissent Voting Behavior of Central Bankers: What Do We Really Know?," Working Papers IES 2012/05, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
  4. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek & Jakub Mateju & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators of Economic Crises: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries," Working Papers 2011/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  5. Sousa, João & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Asset returns under model uncertainty: evidence from the euro area, the U.S. and the U.K," Working Paper Series 1575, European Central Bank.

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