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The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: Is there a puzzle?

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  • Goodhart, Charles A. E.
  • Hofmann, Boris

Abstract

In this paper we assess the performance of the New Keynesian IS Curve for the G7 countries. We find that there is an IS puzzle for both the purely backwardlooking as well as for the forward-looking IS curve. The real interest rate does not have a significantly negative effect on the output gap. Based on an extended specification of the IS curve, also including asset prices and monetary aggregates, we are able to restore a significantly negative interest rate effect on aggregate demand in all countries. This finding suggests that a richer specification of the IS curve in empirical work may be necessary in order to obtain an unbiased estimate of the effect of monetary policy on aggregate demand. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 13-2003.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b132003

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Cited by:
  1. Khemraj, Tarron, 2013. "Bank liquidity preference and the investment demand constraint," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 977-990.
  2. Männistö , Hanna-Leena, 2005. "Forecasting with a forward-looking DGE model: combining long-run views of financial markets with macro forecasting," Research Discussion Papers 21/2005, Bank of Finland.
  3. Antonio Paradiso & Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "A New Keynesian IS curve for Australia: is it forward looking or backward looking?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3691-3700, September.
  4. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy in the euro area in the presence of heterogeneity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-226, March.
  5. Khemraj, Tarron, 2011. "The Non-Zero Lower Bound Lending Rate and the Liquidity Trap," MPRA Paper 42030, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 May 2012.
  6. Paul Turner, 2007. "Some UK evidence on the Forward Looking IS Equation:," Discussion Paper Series 2007_16, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2007.
  7. Bofinger, Peter & Mayer, Eric, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact Time to Rebuild!," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 56, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  8. Semmler, Willi & Zhang, Wenlang, 2007. "Asset price volatility and monetary policy rules: A dynamic model and empirical evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 411-430, May.
  9. Hafer, R.W. & Jones, Garett, 2008. "Dynamic IS curves with and without money: An international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 609-616, June.

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