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Central bank independence and inflation expectations: evidence from British index-linked gilts

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Author Info
Mark M. Spiegel

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Abstract

This paper conducts a case study of the impact of the May 6, 1997, announcement of enhanced independence of the Bank of England on estimates of expected future inflation and real interest rates. These are generated from observed yields on conventional and index-linked British gilts. For the longest-term bonds in the study, we find a 34 and 60 bases point decline in expected average future inflation over the life of the bond for one-day and two-week event windows, respectively. These results support the contention that institutional changes alone do affect agents' inflationary expectations.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 3-14
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1998:p:3-14:n:1

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Related research
Keywords: Banks and banking; Central ; Bonds - Great Britain ; Inflation (Finance) ; Great Britain;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. David Barr & John Campbell, . "Inflation, real interest rates and the bond market: a study of UK nominal and index-linked Government bond prices," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
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  3. Timothy Cogley, 1995. "Inflation uncertainty and excess returns on stocks and banks," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 21-29. [Downloadable!]
  4. Arak, Marcelle & Kreicher, Lawrence, 1985. "The Real Rate of Interest: Inferences from the New U.K. Indexed Gilts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 399-408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Taylor, John B., 1981. "On the relation between the variability of inflation and the average inflation rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-85, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Guy Debelle & Stanley Fischer, 1994. "How independent should a central bank be?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  7. Kandel, Shmuel & Ofer, Aharon R & Sarig, Oded, 1996. " Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 205-25, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pu Shen, 1995. "Benefits and limitations of inflation indexed Treasury bonds," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 41-56. [Downloadable!]
  9. Eijffinger, S-C-W & de Haan, J, 1996. "The Political Economy of Central-Bank Independence," Princeton Studies in International Economics 19, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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  10. Adam S. Posen, 1995. "Declarations Are Not Enough: Financial Sector Sources of Central Bank Independence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 253-274 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. A. Kontonikas & A. Montagnoli, 2002. "Has Monetary Policy Reacted To Asset Price Movements: Evidence From The Uk," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. JoAnne Morris & Tonny Lybek, 2004. "Central Bank Governance: A Survey of Boards and Management," IMF Working Papers 04/226, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Banco de España Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Aleksandra Maslowska, 2008. "Quest for the best: How to measure central bank independence and show its relation with inflation?," Discussion Papers 37, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
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