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Price Level Convergence among United States Cities: Lessons for the european central bank

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Author Info
Stephen Cecchetti () (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Department of Economics)
Nelson C. Mark () (The Ohio State University)
Robert Sonora () (Ohio Wesleyan University)

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Abstract

We study the dynamics of price indices for major U.S. cities. Using panel econometric methods, we find that relative price levels among cities mean revert, but at a surprisingly slow rate. In a panel of 15 cities from 1918 to 1995, we estimate the half life of convergence to be approximately 9 years. The following hypotheses are investigated as explanations for the slow convergence: (i) Arbitrage impediments induced by transportation costs, and (ii) and the inclusion of nontraded goods prices in the overall price index as suggested by the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. Our estimates provide an upper bound on convergence rates that participants in European Monetary Union may experience.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 32.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 30 Jul 1998
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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:32

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Keywords: Purchasing power parity Convergence European Monetary Union

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba & Gwen Eudey, 1998. "TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PRODUCTIVITY: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates and Inflation Differentials," Working Papers 27, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  4. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1997. "Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rates in Sticky Price Models of International Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Paul G. J. O'Connell & Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. ""The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall": How Price Differences Across U.S. Cities Are Arbitraged," NBER Working Papers 6089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2000. "Violating the Law of One Price: Should We Make a Federal Case Out of It?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0027, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Papell, David H & Theodoridis, Hristos, 2001. "The Choice of Numeraire Currency in Panel Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 790-803, August.
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  24. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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