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Regional inflation in a currency union: fiscal policy vs. fundamentals

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Author Info
Margarida Duarte
Alexander L. Wolman

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Abstract

We develop a general equilibrium model of a two-region currency union. There are two types of goods: non-trade goods, and traded goods for which markets are segmented. Monetary policy is set by a central monetary authority and is non-neutral due to nominal price rigidities. Fiscal policy is determined at the regional level by each region's government. We find that productivity shocks alone generate significant variation in inflation across the two countries. Government spending shocks, in contrast, do not account for a significant portion of inflation variation. Varying relative country size, we find that smaller countries experience higher variability of their inflation differential in response to shocks to productivity growth. Moreover, we show that regional governments can suppress incipient inflation differentials associated with shocks to productivity growth by letting the income tax rate respond negatively to inflation differentials.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 746.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:746

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Econometric models;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  5. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 7869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1996. "Convergence to the Law of One Price without Trade Barriers or Currency Fluctuations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1211-36, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. John H. Rogers, 2001. "Price level convergence, relative prices, and inflation in Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 699, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  19. Tommaso Monacelli, 2000. "Relinquishing Monetary Policy Independence," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 483, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "Sticky prices, marginal cost, and the behavior of inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 29-48. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cornelia Holthausen & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2002. "Efficient pricing of large value interbank payment systems," Working Paper Series 184, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2005. "How Do Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interact in the European Monetary Union?," NBER Working Papers 11055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2003. "Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," Economics Working Papers 923, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Evi Pappa, 2005. "The Unbearable Tightness of Being in a Monetary Union: Fiscal Restrictions and Regional Stability"," Working Papers 294, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Anna Lipinska, 2008. "The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Optimal Monetary Policy for the EMU Accession Countries," Working Paper Series 896, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Pappa, Evi, 2005. "New-Keynesian or RBC Transmission? The Effects of Fiscal Shocks in Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Satchi, Mathan & Vines, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Optimal Fiscal Policy Rules in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5533, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Margarida Duarte & Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Fiscal policy and regional inflation in a currency union," Working Paper 03-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Lutz Kilian & Atsushi Inoue, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Günter W. Beck & Axel A. Weber, 2005. "Inflation Rate Dispersion and Convergence in Monetary and Economic Unions: Lessons for the ECB," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/31, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  11. Philip R. Lane, & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp05, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Evi Pappa, 2005. "New Keynesian or RBC Transmission? The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Labor Markets," Working Papers 293, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
  13. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2004. "Does it Cost to be Virtuous? The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Constraints," Economics Working Papers 926, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Ivo J.M. Arnold & Clemens J.M. Kool, 2003. "The Role of Inflation Differentials in Regional Adjustment: Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 04-13, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Günter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," Working Paper Series 681, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2003. "Price Dispersions in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Matthew Canzoneri, 2007. "Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: Policy Issues & Analytical Models," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 165, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  18. Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area and a Comparison with the US," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 338, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2005. "The Elusive Costs and the Immaterial Gains of Fiscal Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5406, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Titiana Kirsanova & David Vines & Mathan Satchi & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2005. "Inflation Persistence, Fiscal Constraints and Non-cooperative Authorities Stabilization Policy in a Monetary Union," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 17, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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