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Monetary and fiscal policy aspects of indirect tax changes in a monetary union

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  • Lipińska, Anna
  • von Thadden, Leopold

Abstract

In recent years a number of European countries have shifted their tax structure more strongly towards indirect taxes, motivated, inter alia, by the intention to foster competitiveness. Against this background, this paper develops a tractable two-country model of a monetary union, characterised by national fiscal and supranational monetary policy, with price-setting firms and endogenously determined terms of trade. The paper discusses a number of monetary and fiscal policy questions which emerge if one of the countries shifts its tax structure more strongly towards indirect taxes. Qualitatively, it is shown that the long-run effects of such a unilateral policy shift on output and consumption within and between the two countries depend sensitively on whether indirect tax revenues are used to lower direct taxes or to finance additional government expenditures. Moreover, short-run dynamics are shown to depend significantly on the speed at which fiscal adjustments take place, on the choice of the inflation index stabilised by the central bank, and on whether the tax shift is anticipated or not. Quantitatively, the calibrated model version indicates that only if the additional indirect tax revenues are used to finance a cut in direct taxes there is some, though limited scope for non-negligible spillovers between countries. JEL Classification: E61, E63, F42

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1097.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091097

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Keywords: Currency union; fiscal regimes; monetary policy;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. European Commission, 2011. "Tax Reforms in EU Member States 2011: tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability," Taxation Papers 28, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
  2. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.
  3. Andrea Raffo & Andrea Ferrero & Gauti Eggertsson, 2013. "Structural Reforms in a Monetary Union: The Role of the ZLB," 2013 Meeting Papers 637, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. A team of the Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
  5. European Commission, 2010. "Tax Policy after the Crisis: Monitoring Tax Revenues and Tax Reforms in EU Member States 2010 Report," Taxation Papers 24, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
  6. Francesco Franco, 2011. "Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp556, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
  7. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2011. "On the Economic and Budgetary Impact of Fiscal Devaluation in Portugal," Working Papers 116, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.

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