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Fiscal reaction rules in numerical macro models

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Richard Johnson
Abstract

To avoid exploding government debt, numerical macro models require ‘fiscal reaction rules’. Present rules impose arbitrary, backward-looking reaction of taxes to deviations of the debt ratio from a target. Arbitrary models may be poor guides to monetary policy. An optimising fiscal policy-maker would look forward, and maximise an objective function. A simple optimising model implies the future tax rate should be constant. I implement the constant-future-tax rule in the IMF’s MULTIMOD model. Simulations show model outcomes’ sensitivity to the choice of fiscal rule. A constant tax rate induces smoother and hence preferable consumption paths to MULTIMOD’s existing rule.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number RWP 01-01.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp01-01

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Keywords: Fiscal policy ; Debt;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith & Steven A. Symansky, 1990. "MULTIMOD Mark II: A Revised and Extended Model," IMF Occasional Papers 71, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Frederico S. Finan & Robert Tetlow, 1999. "Optimal control of large, forward-looking models efficient solutions and two examples," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hamid Faruqee & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Eswar Prasad & Bart Turtelboom, 1998. "Multimod Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "The A-K Model: It's Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 6684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andrew T. Levin & John H. Rogers & Ralph W. Tryon, 1997. "A guide to FRB/Global," International Finance Discussion Papers 588, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  1. Martin Schneider & Markus Leibrecht, 2006. "AQM-06: The Macroeconomic Model of the OeNB," Working Papers 132, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  2. Margarida Duarte & Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Fiscal policy and regional inflation in a currency union," Working Paper 03-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Margarida Duarte & Alexander L. Wolman, 2002. "Regional inflation in a currency union: fiscal policy vs. fundamentals," International Finance Discussion Papers 746, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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