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The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?

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  • Minford, Patrick
  • Ou, Zhirong
  • Wickens, Michael
  • Zhu, Zheyi

Abstract

The financial stability of the eurozone depends on its macroeconomic stability and vice versa. We construct a macro DSGE model of the eurozone and its two main regions, the North and the South, with the aim of matching the macro facts of these economies by indirect inference and using the resulting empirically-based model to assess possible new policy regimes that could maintain financial stability. The model we have found to fit the facts suggests that substantial gains in stability and consumer welfare are possible if the fiscal authority in each region is given the freedom to respond to its own economic situation. Further gains could come with the restoration of monetary independence to the two regions, in effect creating a second ‘southern euro’ bloc. Enhanced fiscal flexibility increases fluctuations in debt and deficit ratios to GDP while keeping average ratios stable, maintaining solvency. A reformed Stability and Growth Pact could be limited to monitoring solvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Wickens, Michael & Zhu, Zheyi, 2022. "The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:63:y:2022:i:c:s1572308922000869
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101064
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P. & Tavlas, George S., 2022. "Financial risks, monetary policy in the QE era, and regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "The role of fiscal policy -- a survey of recent empirical findings," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/26, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Petroulas, Pavlos & Tavlas, George S., 2022. "An investigation into feedback and spatial relationships between banks’ share prices and sovereign bond spreads during the euro crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Minford, Patrick, 2023. "Where next for monetary policy? lessons from the financial crisis and the pandemic," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/25, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurozone; Macro stability; Fiscal policy; Monetary independence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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