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How much nominal rigidity is there in the US Economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference

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  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai
  • Minford, Patrick
  • Wickens, Michael R.

Abstract

We evaluate the Smets-Wouters model of the US using indirect inference with a VAR representation of the main US data series. We find that the original New Keynesian SW model is on the margin of acceptance when SW's own estimates of the variances and time-series behaviour of the structural errors are used. However when the structural errors implied jointly by the data and the structural model are used the model is rejected. We also construct an alternative (New Classical) version of the model with flexible wages and prices and a one-period information lag. This too is rejected. But when small proportions of both the labour and product markets are assumed to be imperfectly competitive within otherwise flexible markets the resulting `weighted' model is accepted.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7537.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7537

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Keywords: Bootstrap; DSGE; grea moderation; indirect inference; New Classical; New Keynesian; regime change; structural break; US Model; VAR; Wald statistic;

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  1. Dixon, Huw, 1992. "Nominal Wage Flexibility in a Partly-Unionized Economy," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(3), pages 295-306, September.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
  4. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Estimating and testing structural changes in multivariate regressions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  5. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2004. "The Cost of Nominal Inertia in NNS Models," NBER Working Papers 10889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Mark Gertler & John Leahy, 2006. "A Phillips curve with an Ss foundation," Working Papers 06-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  8. Michel Juillard, 2001. "DYNARE: A program for the simulation of rational expectation models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 213, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Dixon, Huw David, 1994. "Macroeconomic Price and Quantity Responses with Heterogeneous Product Markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 385-402, July.
  10. Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-77, November.
  11. Wickens, Michael R, 1982. "The Efficient Estimation of Econometric Models with Rational Expectations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 55-67, January.
  12. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
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