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Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics

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  • Davidson, James
  • Meenagh, David

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Minford, Patrick

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Wickens, Michael

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

A Real Business Cycle model of the UK is developed to account for the behaviour of UK nonstationary macro data. The model is tested by the method of indirect inference, bootstrapping the errors to generate 95% confidence limits for a VECM representation of the data; we find the model can explain the behaviour of main variables (GDP, real exchange rate, real interest rate) but not that of detailed GDP components. We use the model to explain how `crisis' and `euphoria' are endemic in capitalist behaviour due to nonstationarity; and we draw some policy lessons.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2010/13.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2010/13

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Keywords: Nonstationarity; Productivity; Real Business Cycle; Bootstrap; Indirect Inference; Banking Crisis; Banking Regulation;

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References

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  1. Cedric Tille & Nicolas Stoffels & Olga Gorbachev, 2001. "To what extent does productivity drive the dollar?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 7(Aug).
  2. Patrick Minford & David Meenagh & Jiang Wang, 2006. " Testing a Simple Structural Model of Endogenous Growth," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0606, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  3. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2008. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE Model using indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/32, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Jul 2011.
  4. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2010. "Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1131-1150, October.
  5. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R, 2008. "Testing a DSGE Model of the EU Using Indirect Inference," CEPR Discussion Papers 6838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Alastair R. Hall & Atsushi Inoue & James M Nason & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Information Criteria for Impulse Response Function Matching Estimation of DSGE Models," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 127, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  7. Harris Dellas & George Tavlas, 2004. "Wage Rigidity and Monetary Union," Working Papers 12, Bank of Greece.
  8. Wickens, Michael R, 1982. "The Efficient Estimation of Econometric Models with Rational Expectations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 55-67, January.
  9. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1987. "Calibration as Estimation," Working Papers 700, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  10. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2009. "The 'Puzzles' Methodology: en route to Indirect Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Gianluca Benigno & Huigang Chen & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci & Eric R. Young, 2010. "Revisiting Overborrowing and Its Policy Implications," IDB Publications 6855, Inter-American Development Bank.
  12. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Limited Information Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  14. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
  15. Dridi, Ramdan & Guay, Alain & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Indirect inference and calibration of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 397-430, February.
  16. Minford, Patrick & Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nowell, Eric, 1986. "A new classical econometric model of the world economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 154-174, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2012. "Testing DSGE models by Indirect inference and other methods: some Monte Carlo experiments," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2012. "What causes banking crises? An empirical investigation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Apr 2013.

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