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How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference

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Author Info

  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai
  • Meenagh, David
  • Minford, Patrick
  • Wickens, Michael

Abstract

We evaluate the Smets–Wouters New Keynesian model of the US postwar period, using indirect inference, the bootstrap and a VAR representation of the data. We find that the model is strongly rejected. While an alternative (New Classical) version of the model fares no better, adding limited nominal rigidity to it produces a ‘weighted’ model version closest to the data. But on data from 1984 onwards – the ‘great moderation’ – the best model version is one with a high degree of nominal rigidity, close to New Keynesian. Our results are robust to a variety of methodological and numerical issues.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 2078-2104

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:12:p:2078-2104

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Bootstrap; US model; DSGE; VAR; New Keynesian; New Classical; Indirect inference; Wald statistic; Regime change; Structural break; Great moderation;

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References

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  1. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
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  3. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  4. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
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  6. Wickens, Michael R, 1982. "The Efficient Estimation of Econometric Models with Rational Expectations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 55-67, January.
  7. Dixon, Huw, 1992. "Nominal Wage Flexibility in a Partly-Unionized Economy," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(3), pages 295-306, September.
  8. Dixon, Huw David, 1994. "Macroeconomic Price and Quantity Responses with Heterogeneous Product Markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 385-402, July.
  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. Mark Gertler & John Leahy, 2006. "A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation," NBER Working Papers 11971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Michel Juillard, 2001. "DYNARE: A program for the simulation of rational expectation models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 213, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2004. "The Cost of Nominal Inertia in NNS Models," NBER Working Papers 10889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Vo Phuong Mai Le & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2009. " The ‘Puzzles’ Methodology: En Route to Indirect Inference?," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0903, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2012. "What causes banking crises? An empirical investigation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  3. ap Gwilym, Rhys, 2009. "The Monetary Policy Implications of Behavioral Asset Bubbles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  4. Liu, Chunping & Minford, Patrick, 2012. "Comparing behavioural and rational expectations for the US post-war economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 9132, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Liu, Chunping & Minford, Patrick, 2012. "How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  6. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2010. "Two Orthogonal Continents? Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and the EU Using Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 23-44, February.
  7. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2009. "Two Orthogonal Continents? Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference," CEPR Discussion Papers 7385, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2012. "Testing macroeconomic models by indirect inference on unfiltered data," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/17, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  10. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2012. "Testing DSGE models by Indirect inference and other methods: some Monte Carlo experiments," CEPR Discussion Papers 9056, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Wickens, Michael, 2012. "Revisiting the Great Moderation using the Method of Indirect Inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised May 2013.
  12. Hatcher, Michael C., 2011. "Inflation versus price-level targeting and the zero lower bound: Stochastic simulations from the Smets-Wouters US model," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/24, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

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