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The 'Puzzles' Methodology: en route to Indirect Inference?

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  • Minford, Patrick
  • Wickens, Michael R.
  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai

Abstract

We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments with data moments. We compare these with the method of Indirect Inference to which they are closely related. We illustrate the comparison with contrasting assessments of a two-country model in two recent papers. We conclude that Indirect Inference is the proper end point of the puzzles methodology.

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  • Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Le, Vo Phuong Mai, 2009. "The 'Puzzles' Methodology: en route to Indirect Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7539
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    1. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
    2. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2009. "Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 978-992, September.
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    5. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    6. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2009. "Testing a DSGE Model of the EU Using Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 435-471, September.
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    9. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2010. "Two Orthogonal Continents? Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and the EU Using Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 23-44, February.
    10. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Minford & Yi Wang & Peng Zhou, 2020. "Resolving the public-sector wage premium puzzle by indirect inference," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(7), pages 726-741, February.
    2. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou, 2013. "What Causes Banking Crises? An Empirical Investigation for the World Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 581-611, September.
    3. Li Dai & Patrick Minford & Peng Zhou, 2015. "A DSGE model of China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(59), pages 6438-6460, December.
    4. Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou & Michael Wickens, 2015. "Revisiting the Great Moderation: Policy or Luck?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 197-223, April.
    5. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    6. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "Taylor Rule or optimal timeless policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behavior since 1982," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-123.
    7. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2010. "Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1131-1150, October.
    8. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Meenagh, David & Le, Vo Phuong Mai, 2012. "Testing DSGE models by Indirect inference and other methods: some Monte Carlo experiments," CEPR Discussion Papers 9056, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    10. Nasir Aminu, 2018. "Evaluation of a DSGE Model of Energy in the United Kingdom Using Stationary Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 1033-1068, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anomaly; Bootstrap; Dsge; indirect inference; Puzzle; Us-eu model; Var; Wald statistic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

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