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The ‘Puzzles’ Methodology: En Route to Indirect Inference?

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  • Vo Phuong Mai Le

    ()

  • Patrick Minford

    ()

  • Michael Wickens

Abstract

We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments with data moments. We compare these with the method of Indirect Inference to which they are closely related. We illustrate the comparison with contrasting assessments of a two-country model in two recent papers. We conclude that Indirect Inference is the proper end point of the puzzles methodology.

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File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/CDMA/papers/cp0903.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Conference Paper Series with number 0903.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0903

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Web page: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/cdma
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Keywords: Bootstrap; US-EU Model; DSGE; VAR; Indirect Inference; Wald Statistic; Anomaly; Puzzle.;

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References

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  1. Roman Sustek & Finn Kydland & Espen Henriksen, 2008. "The High Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates across Nations," 2008 Meeting Papers 773, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2006. "Back to Square One: Identification Issues in DSGE Models," Working Papers 303, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2008. "Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2008.
  4. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2008. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE Model using indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/32, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Jul 2011.
  5. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  6. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2009. "Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 978-992, September.
  7. Minford, Patrick & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Meenagh, David, 2007. "Testing a model of the UK by the method of indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Apr 2008.
  8. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ellen R. McGrattan & Patrick J. Kehoe & V. V. Chari, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Working Papers 664, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  12. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2009. "Two Orthogonal Continents: Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2009.
  13. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  15. Kollmann, Robert, 2009. "Household Heterogeneity and the Real Exchange Rate: Still a Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
  17. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1987. "Calibration as Estimation," Working Papers 700, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  18. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn & Sustek, Roman, 2008. "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 10963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Christoph Thoenissen, 2007. "Money And Monetary Policy In Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(s1), pages 88-122, 09.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Wickens, Michael, 2012. "Revisiting the Great Moderation using the Method of Indirect Inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised May 2013.
  2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2012. "Testing DSGE models by Indirect inference and other methods: some Monte Carlo experiments," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  3. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2009. "Taylor Rule or Optimal Timeless Policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behaviour since 1982," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised May 2010.
  4. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2010. "Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1131-1150, October.

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