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The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates

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  • Henriksen, Espen
  • Kydland, Finn
  • Sustek, Roman

Abstract

We document that, at business cycle frequencies, fluctuations in nominal variables, such as aggregate price levels and nominal interest rates, are substantially more synchronized across countries than fluctuations in real output. To the extent that domestic nominal variables are determined by domestic monetary policy, and central banks generally attempt to keep the domestic nominal environment stable, this might seem surprising. We ask if a parsimonious international business cycle model can account for this aspect of cross-country aggregate fluctuations. It can. Due to spillovers of technology shocks across countries, expected future responses of national central banks to fluctuations in domestic output and inflation generate movements in current prices and interest rates that are synchronized across countries even when output is not. Even modest spillovers produce cross-country correlations such as those in the data.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10963.

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Date of creation: 12 Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10963

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Keywords: International business cycles; prices; interest rates;

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Cited by:
  1. Vo Phuong Mai Le & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2009. " The ‘Puzzles’ Methodology: En Route to Indirect Inference?," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0903, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  2. Auer, Raphael & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2014. "Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 172, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Sustek, Roman, 2009. "Monetary Business Cycle Accounting," MPRA Paper 17518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2010. "Interest Rate Co-movements, Global Factors and the Long End of the Term Spread," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-24, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  5. Neely, Christopher J. & Rapach, David E., 2011. "International comovements in inflation rates and country characteristics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1471-1490.
  6. Lindenberg, Nannette & Westermann, Frank, 2012. "Common trends and common cycles among interest rates of the G7-countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1125-1140.
  7. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
  8. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2009. "Some problems in the testing of DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/31, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  9. Saverio Simonelli & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "A Historical Perspective on International Co-movements: 1821-2007," 2009 Meeting Papers 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Sustek, Roman, 2010. "Monetary aggregates and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 451-465, May.

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