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Some problems in the testing of DSGE models

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  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Minford, Patrick

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Wickens, Michael

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments and other features with data equivalents. We note that they select, scale and characterise the shocks without reference to the data; crucially they fail to use the joint distribution of the features under comparison. We illustrate this point by recomputing an assessment of a two-country model in a recent paper; we find that the paper's conclusions are essentially reversed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2009/31.

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Length: 6 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2009/31

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Keywords: Boostrap; US-EU model; DSGE; VAR; indirect inference; Wald statistic; anomaly; puzzle;

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  1. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn & Sustek, Roman, 2008. "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 10963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  3. Roman Sustek & Finn Kydland & Espen Henriksen, 2008. "The High Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates across Nations," 2008 Meeting Papers 773, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  5. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2009. "Two Orthogonal Continents: Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2009.
  6. Kollmann, Robert, 2009. "Household Heterogeneity and the Real Exchange Rate: Still a Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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