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Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference

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Author Info

  • Meenagh, David

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Minford, Patrick

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Wickens, Michael

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data; the test is based on the Wald statistic. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. But their model passes the Wald test easily if the errors have the properties assumed by SW but scaled down. We compare a New Classical version of the model which also passes the test easily if error properties are chosen using New Classical priors (notably excluding shocks to preferences). Both versions have (different) difficulties fitting the data if the actual error properties are used. However, a version embedding a small sector with Calvo contracts in an otherwise New Classical economy fits the data well without any scaling.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2008/11.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision: Dec 2008
Publication status: Published in Open Economies Review , vol. 20(4) (2009), 435-471
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2008/11

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Keywords: Bootstrap; DSGE Model; VAR model; Model of EU; indirect inference; Wald statistic;

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  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2005. "An Interview with Thomas J. Sargent," CESifo Working Paper Series 1434, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1991. "Calibration in Macroeconomics," Working Papers 826, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Juillard, M., 2003. "Computing in economics and finance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 1939-1939.
  7. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  8. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
  9. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
  10. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October.
  11. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S123-44, Suppl. De.
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Cited by:
  1. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2009. "Taylor Rule or Optimal Timeless Policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behaviour since 1982," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised May 2010.
  2. Vo Phuong Mai Le & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2009. " The ‘Puzzles’ Methodology: En Route to Indirect Inference?," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0903, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  3. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2005. "Can a Real Business Cycle Model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Mar 2010.
  4. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

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