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Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference

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Author Info

  • Meenagh, David

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Minford, Patrick

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Wickens, Michael

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data; the test is based on the Wald statistic. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. But their model passes the Wald test easily if the errors have the properties assumed by SW but scaled down. We compare a New Classical version of the model which also passes the test easily if error properties are chosen using New Classical priors (notably excluding shocks to preferences). Both versions have (different) difficulties fitting the data if the actual error properties are used. However, a version embedding a small sector with Calvo contracts in an otherwise New Classical economy fits the data well without any scaling.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2008/11.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision: Dec 2008
Publication status: Published in Open Economies Review , vol. 20(4) (2009), 435-471
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2008/11

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Keywords: Bootstrap; DSGE Model; VAR model; Model of EU; indirect inference; Wald statistic;

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  1. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
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  7. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
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Cited by:
  1. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2010. "Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1131-1150, October.
  2. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  3. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2009. "The 'Puzzles' Methodology: en route to Indirect Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "Taylor Rule or optimal timeless policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behavior since 1982," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-123.

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