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Comparison of Misspecified Calibrated Models: The Minimum Distance Approach

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  • Hnatkovska, Viktoria
  • Marmer, Vadim
  • Tang, Yao

Abstract

This paper proposes several testing procedures for comparison of misspecified calibrated models. The proposed tests are of the Vuong-type (Vuong, 1989; Rivers and Vuong, 2002). In our framework, the econometrician selects values for model's parameters in order to match some characteristics of data with those implied by the theoretical model. We assume that all competing models are misspecified, and suggest a test for the null hypothesis that they provide equivalent fit to data characteristics, against the alternative that one of the models is a better approximation. We consider both nested and non-nested cases. We also relax the dependence of models' ranking on the choice of a weight matrix by suggesting averaged and sup-norm procedures. The methods are illustrated by comparing the cash-in-advance and portfolio adjustment cost models in their ability to match the impulse responses of output and inflation to money growth shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Vancouver School of Economics in its series Microeconomics.ca working papers with number vadim_marmer-2008-14.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 16 Oct 2008
Date of revision: 28 Sep 2011
Handle: RePEc:ubc:pmicro:vadim_marmer-2008-14

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Web page: http://www.economics.ubc.ca/

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Keywords: misspecified models; calibration; matching; minimum distance estimation;

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References

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  1. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
  2. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S123-44, Suppl. De.
  3. Alastair R. Hall & Atsushi Inoue, 2005. "The Large Sample Behaviour of the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator in Misspecified Models," Econometrics 0505002, EconWPA.
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  5. Nason, James M & Cogley, Timothy, 1994. "Testing the Implications of Long-Run Neutrality for Monetary Business Cycle Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S37-70, Suppl. De.
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  15. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim & Tang, Yao, 2009. "Supplement to "Comparison of Misspecified Calibrated Models"," Microeconomics.ca working papers vadim_marmer-2009-58, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 03 Feb 2011.
  16. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2009. "Model Comparison Using the Hansen-Jagannathan Distance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3449-3490, September.
  17. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1991. "Calibration in Macroeconomics," Working Papers 826, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  18. Dridi, Ramdan & Guay, Alain & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Indirect inference and calibration of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 397-430, February.
  19. Douglas Rivers & Quang Vuong, 2002. "Model selection tests for nonlinear dynamic models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, June.
  20. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
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  23. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
  24. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jang, Tae-Seok, 2012. "Structural estimation of the New-Keynesian model: A formal test of backward- and forward-looking behavior," Economics Working Papers 2012-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  2. Jang, Tae-Seok, 2012. "Structural estimation of the New-Keynesian Model: a formal test of backward- and forward-looking expectations," MPRA Paper 40278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Janet Koech, 2011. "Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe," Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 2-12.
  4. Jang, Tae-Seok, 2012. "Structural estimation of the New-Keynesian Model: a formal test of backward- and forward-looking expectations," MPRA Paper 39669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Gao, Xiaodan & Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim, 2013. "Supplement to “Limited Participation in International Business Cycle Models: A Formal Evaluationâ€," Microeconomics.ca working papers vadim_marmer-2013-54, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 21 Dec 2013.
  6. Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012. "Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in a New-Keynesian baseline model," Economics Working Papers 2012-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  7. Gao, Xiaodan & Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim, 2012. "Limited Participation in International Business Cycle Models: A Formal Evaluation," Microeconomics.ca working papers vadim_marmer-2012-1, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 21 Dec 2013.
  8. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim & Tang, Yao, 2009. "Supplement to "Comparison of Misspecified Calibrated Models"," Microeconomics.ca working papers vadim_marmer-2009-58, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 03 Feb 2011.
  9. Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2011. "Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in the new-Keynesian three-equations model," Economics Working Papers 2011,10, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

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