Model comparison using the Hansen-Jagannathan distance
AbstractAlthough it is of interest to empirical researchers to test whether or not a particular asset-pricing model is true, a more useful task is to determine how wrong a model is and to compare the performance of competing asset-pricing models. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to test whether two competing linear asset-pricing models have the same Hansen-Jagannathan distance. We show that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic depends on whether the competing models are correctly specified or misspecified and are nested or nonnested. In addition, given the increasing interest in misspecified models, we propose a simple methodology for computing the standard errors of the estimated stochastic discount factor parameters that are robust to model misspecification. Using the same data as in Hodrick and Zhang (2001), we show that the commonly used returns and factors are, for the most part, too noisy to conclude that one model is superior to the other models in terms of Hansen-Jagannathan distance. In addition, we show that many of the macroeconomic factors commonly used in the literature are no longer priced once potential model misspecification is taken into account.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2007-04.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2009. "Model Comparison Using the Hansen-Jagannathan Distance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3449-3490, September.
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-03-31 (Econometrics)
- NEP-RMG-2007-03-31 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999.
"Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
7009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, 08.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996.
" The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Campbell, John, 1996.
"Understanding Risk and Return,"
3153293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Understanding Risk and Return," NBER Working Papers 4554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Understanding Risk and Return," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1711, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999.
"Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns,"
77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, 06.
- Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars Peter Hansen & John Heaton & Erzo Luttmer, 1993.
"Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2003.
"The large sample behaviour of the generalized method of moments estimator in misspecified models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 361-394, June.
- Alastair R. Hall & Atsushi Inoue, 2005. "The Large Sample Behaviour of the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator in Misspecified Models," Econometrics 0505002, EconWPA.
- Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2001.
"Evaluating the specification errors of asset pricing models,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 327-376, November.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2000. "Evaluating the Specification Errors of Asset Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 7661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2006.
"Specification tests of asset pricing models using excess returns,"
2006-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2008. "Specification tests of asset pricing models using excess returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 816-838, December.
- Jagannathan, Ravi & Kubota, Keiichi & Takehara, Hitoshi, 1998.
"Relationship between Labor-Income Risk and Average Return: Empirical Evidence from the Japanese Stock Market,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 319-47, July.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Keiichi Kubota & Hitoshi Takehara, 1997. "Relationship between labor-income risk and average return: empirical evidence from the Japanese stock market," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 117, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
- Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Nonlinear Pricing Kernels, Kurtosis Preference, and Evidence from the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 369-403, 02.
- Douglas Rivers & Quang Vuong, 2002. "Model selection tests for nonlinear dynamic models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, June.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
- Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Ravi Jagannathan, 1996. "Econometric evaluation of asset pricing models," Staff Report 206, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2009.
"Pricing Model Performance and the Two-Pass Cross-Sectional Regression Methodology,"
NBER Working Papers
15047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2009. "Pricing model performance and the two-pass cross-sectional regression methodology," Working Paper 2009-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Xiaohong Chen, 2004.
"Land of Addicts? An Empirical Investigation of Habit-Based Asset Pricing Models,"
2004 Meeting Papers
692, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Xiaohong Chen & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2009. "Land of addicts? an empirical investigation of habit-based asset pricing models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1057-1093.
- Barclay, Richard & Fletcher, Jonathan & Marshall, Andrew, 2010. "Pricing emerging market stock returns: An update," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 49-61, March.
- Dovonon, Prosper, 2008. "Large sample properties of the three-step euclidean likelihood estimators under model misspecification," MPRA Paper 40025, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 May 2010.
- Craig Burnside, 2010. "Identification and Inference in Linear Stochastic Discount Factor Models," NBER Working Papers 16634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marmer, Vadim & Otsu, Taisuke, 2012.
"Optimal comparison of misspecified moment restriction models under a chosen measure of fit,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 538-550.
- Marmer, Vadim & Otsu, Taisuke, 2008. "Optimal Comparison of Misspecified Moment Restriction Models under a Chosen Measure of Fit," Micro Theory Working Papers vadim_marmer-2008-13, Microeconomics.ca Website, revised 25 Jul 2011.
- Vadim Marmer & Taisuke Otsu, 2009. "Optimal Comparison of Misspecified Moment Restriction Models under a Chosen Measure of Fit," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1724, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2011.
- Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutierrez & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2008. "Evaluating Asset Pricing Models in a Fama-French Framework," Working Papers Series 175, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Pierluigi Balduzzi & Cesare Robotti, 2005.
"Asset-pricing models and economic risk premia: a decomposition,"
2005-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Robotti, Cesare, 2010. "Asset pricing models and economic risk premia: A decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 54-80, January.
- Nikolay Gospodinov & Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2012. "Analytical solution for the constrained Hansen-Jagannathan distance under multivariate ellipticity," Working Paper 2012-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.