Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in a New-Keynesian baseline model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Franke, Reiner
  • Jang, Tae-Seok
  • Sacht, Stephen

Abstract

The paper considers an elementary New-Keynesian three equation model and compares its Bayesian estimation to the results from the method of moments (MM), which seeks to match finite set of the model-generated second moments of inflation, output and the interest rate to their empirical counterparts. It is found that in the Great Inflation (GI) period - though not in the Great Moderation (GM)|the two estimations imply a significantly different covariance structure. Regarding the parameters, special emphasis is placed on the degree of backward-looking behaviour in the Phillips curve. While, in line with much of the literature, it plays a minor role in the Bayesian estimations, MM yields values of the price indexation parameter close to or even at its maximal value of unity. For both GI and GM, these results are worth noticing since in (strong or, respectively, weak) contrast to the Bayesian parameters, the covariance matching thus achieved is entirely satisfactory. --

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/62781/1/726075051.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2012-08.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201208

Contact details of provider:
Postal: D-24098 Kiel,Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1
Phone: 0431-880 3282
Fax: 0431-880 3150
Web page: http://www.wiso.uni-kiel.de/econ/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Inflation persistence; price indexation; autocovariance profiles; goodness-of-fit; bootstrapping;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004, Money Macro and Finance Research Group 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August.
  3. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
  5. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
  6. Henzel, Steffen & Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2009. "The price puzzle revisited: Can the cost channel explain a rise in inflation after a monetary policy shock?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 268-289, June.
  7. Collard, Fabrice & Fève, Patrick & Langot, François & Perraudin, Corinne, 1999. "A structural model for US aggregate job flows," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9910, CEPREMAP.
  8. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2010. "Inflation Target Shocks and Monetary Policy Inertia in the Euro Area," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/12493, Paris Dauphine University.
  9. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  10. Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2009. "Bank behavior, incomplete interest rate pass-through, and the cost channel of monetary policy transmission," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1310-1327, November.
  11. Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "Learning and Monetary Policy Shifts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 392-419, April.
  12. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  13. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim & Tang, Yao, 2012. "Comparison of misspecified calibrated models: The minimum distance approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 131-138.
  14. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2009. "VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1636-52, September.
  15. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  16. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull & Frank Schorfheide & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Maxym Kryshko & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2009. "Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours," NBER Working Papers 15375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Kim, Jinill & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2011. "Monetary policy when wages are downwardly rigid: Friedman meets Tobin," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2064-2077.
  18. Julien Matheron & Céline Poilly, 2006. "How Well Does a Small Structural Model with Sticky Prices and Wages Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," THEMA Working Papers 2006-11, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  19. Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno, Antonio, 2006. "A Small-Sample Study of the New-Keynesian Macro Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1461-1481, September.
  20. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  21. Frédéric Karamé & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics : does theory meet the data ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) v04013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  22. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, François & Portier, Franck, 1996. "Time to implement and aggregate fluctuations," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9606, CEPREMAP.
  23. Kevin D. Sheedy, 2007. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0837, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  24. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0722, European Central Bank.
  25. Lawrence J. Christiano & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2001. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Working Paper 0106, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  26. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
  27. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Julien Matheron, 2007. "Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Revisiting the Fed's Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 471-507, 03.
  28. Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2011. "Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in the new-Keynesian three-equations model," Economics Working Papers 2011,10, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  29. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Serena Ng, 2009. "Estimation of DSGE Models When the Data are Persistent," NBER Working Papers 15187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Trend inflation and macroeconomic volatilities in the post-WWII U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 19-33, March.
  31. Salemi, Michael K., 2006. "Econometric Policy Evaluation and Inverse Control," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1737-1764, October.
  32. Goffe William L., 1996. "SIMANN: A Global Optimization Algorithm using Simulated Annealing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-9, October.
  33. Ambler, Steve & Guay, Alain & Phaneuf, Louis, 2012. "Endogenous business cycle propagation and the persistence problem: The role of labor-market frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 47-62.
  34. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2012. "Estimating nonlinear DSGE models by the simulated method of moments: With an application to business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 914-938.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012. "Identification of Animal Spirits in a Bounded Rationality Model: An Application to the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 37399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Sacht, Stephen, 2014. "Identification of prior information via moment-matching," Economics Working Papers 2014-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.