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Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference

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  • David Meenagh
  • Patrick Minford
  • Michael Wickensy

Abstract

We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data; the test is based on the Wald statistic. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. If the errors are scaled down, then the original model marginally passes the Wald test. We compare a New Classical version of the model which passes the test but generates a combination of excessive inflation variance and inadequate output variance. If the large consumption and investment errors are removed as possibly due to low frequency events, then the New Classical version passes easily while the original version is strongly rejected.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Conference Paper Series with number 0709.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision: Mar 2008
Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0709

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Keywords: Bootstrap; DSGE Model; VAR model; Model of EU; indirect inference; Wald statistic.;

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  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
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Cited by:
  1. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2009. "The 'Puzzles' Methodology: en route to Indirect Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2010. "Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1131-1150, October.
  4. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2009. "Taylor Rule or Optimal Timeless Policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behaviour since 1982," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised May 2010.

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