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Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference

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  • David Meenagh
  • Patrick Minford
  • Michael Wickensy

Abstract

We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data; the test is based on the Wald statistic. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. If the errors are scaled down, then the original model marginally passes the Wald test. We compare a New Classical version of the model which passes the test but generates a combination of excessive inflation variance and inadequate output variance. If the large consumption and investment errors are removed as possibly due to low frequency events, then the New Classical version passes easily while the original version is strongly rejected.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Conference Paper Series with number 0709.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision: Mar 2008
Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0709

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Keywords: Bootstrap; DSGE Model; VAR model; Model of EU; indirect inference; Wald statistic.;

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  1. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S123-44, Suppl. De.
  4. Juillard, M., 2003. "Computing in economics and finance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 1939-1939, September.
  5. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  6. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2005. "An Interview with Thomas J. Sargent," CESifo Working Paper Series 1434, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
  11. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1991. "Calibration in Macroeconomics," Working Papers 826, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2005. "Can a Real Business Cycle Model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Mar 2010.
  2. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2009. "Taylor Rule or Optimal Timeless Policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behaviour since 1982," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised May 2010.
  3. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Vo Phuong Mai Le & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2009. " The ‘Puzzles’ Methodology: En Route to Indirect Inference?," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0903, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.

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