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Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference

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  • David Meenagh
  • Patrick Minford
  • Michael Wickens
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    Abstract

    We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data; the test is based on the Wald statistic. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. But their model passes the Wald test easily if the errors have the properties assumed by SW but scaled down. We compare a New Classical version of the model which also passes the test easily if error properties are chosen using New Classical priors (notably excluding shocks to preferences). Both versions have (different) difficulties fitting the data if the actual error properties are used.

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    File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/CDMA/papers/cp0801.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Conference Paper Series with number 0801.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0801

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    Postal: Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL
    Phone: 01334 462420
    Fax: 01334 462444
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    Web page: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/cdma
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    Related research

    Keywords: Bootstrap; DSGE Model; VAR model; Model of EU; indirect inference; Wald statistic.;

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    1. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S123-44, Suppl. De.
    2. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    3. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2005. "An Interview with Thomas J. Sargent," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-2, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 11 Jan 2005.
    7. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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