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The eurozone: what is to be done?

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Abstract

We construct a macro DSGE model of the eurozone and its two main regions, the North and the South, with the aim of matching the macro facts of these economies by indirect inference and using the resulting empirically-based model to assess possible new policy regimes. The model we have found to fit the facts suggests that substantial gains in macro stability and consumer welfare are possible if the fiscal authority in each region is given the freedom to respond to its own economic situation. Further gains could come with the restoration of monetary independence to the two regions, in effect creating a second 'southern euro' bloc.

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  • Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Wickens, Michael & Zhu, Zheyi, 2021. "The eurozone: what is to be done?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/11
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    1. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2010. "Two Orthogonal Continents? Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and the EU Using Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 23-44, February.
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    5. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    6. Minford, Patrick & Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nowell, Eric, 1986. "A new classical econometric model of the world economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 154-174, July.
    7. Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou & Zheyi Zhu, 2022. "Is there Consumer Risk-Pooling in the Open Economy? The Evidence Reconsidered," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 109-120, February.
    8. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    9. Matthias Burgert & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2020. "A Global Economy Version of QUEST: Simulation Properties," European Economy - Discussion Papers 126, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    11. Francesca D'Auria & Andrea Pagano & Marco Ratto & Janos Varga, 2009. "A comparison of structural reform scenarios across the EU member states - Simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 392, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
    13. Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2019. "Testing Part of a DSGE Model by Indirect Inference," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(1), pages 178-194, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    eurozone; macro stability; fiscal policy; monetary independence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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