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AQM-06: The Macro economic Model of the OeNB

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Abstract

This paper gives an overview of the current version of the quarterly macroeconomic model of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank for Austria. The model is a small to medium size macroeconomic model. It is in the tradition of the neoclassical synthesis and is therefore in line with most models used by euro system central banks. The model has been extended in several ways compared with the previous version. The most important changes concern the use of oil and import competitor’s prices in the supply block, a more detailed treatment of government receipts, the use of tax rates as policy instruments as well as a dynamic import demand indicator. In the empirical part, the paper presents some simulation results to show the impact of tax increases on the Austrian economy and the reaction of the model to five standard macroeconomic shocks: Increases of the value added tax, the personal income tax and the corporate income tax by the same amount have different effects on the Austrian economy. The reaction of the model to macroeconomic shocks is characterized by a high demand multiplier and a low negative impact of price competitiveness on exports.

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File URL: http://www.oenb.at/dms/oenb/Publikationen/Volkswirtschaft/Working-Papers/2006/Working-Paper-132/fullversion/wp132_tcm16-46515.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 132.

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Date of creation: 18 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:132

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Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7205
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7299
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Web page: http://www.oenb.at/
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Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
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Keywords: Macroeconometric Model; AUstria;

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References

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  1. Yanjun Liu & Nell Hamalainen & Bing-Sun Wong, . "Economic Analysis and Modelling Using Fisher Chain Data," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2003-13, Department of Finance Canada.
  2. Richard Johnson, 2001. "Fiscal reaction rules in numerical macro models," Research Working Paper RWP 01-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  4. Issing,Otmar & Gaspar,Vitor & Angeloni,Ignazio & Tristani,Oreste, 2001. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788885, October.
  5. Alpo Willman & Ángel Estrada, 2002. "The Spanish block of the ESCB-Multi-Country model," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0212, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Gerhard Fenz & Martin Spitzer, 2005. "AQM – The Austrian Quarterly Model of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank," Working Papers 104, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  7. Josef Baumgartner & Fritz Breuss & Serguei Kaniovski, 2004. "WIFO-Macromod. An Econometric Model of the Austrian Economy," WIFO Working Papers 241, WIFO.
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Cited by:
  1. Emanuel Kopp & Christian Ragacs & Stefan W. Schmitz, 2010. "The Economic Impact of Measures Aimed at Strengthening Bank Resilience – Estimates for Austria," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 20.
  2. Christian Ragacs & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Why did we fail to predict GDP during the last cycle? A breakdown of forecast errors for Austria," Working Papers 151, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  3. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2008:i:15:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS

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