Asset Prices and the Conduct of Monetary Policy
AbstractIn simple backward-looking structural models of the economy the optimal monetary policy rule is given by a Taylor-type interest rate rule, with the interest rate being a function of current and lagged inflation rates and the current and lagged output gap. Such a rule is optimal because current and past inflation rates and output gaps are sufficient statistics for future inflation and demand conditions, which are targeted by the central bank. We show that future demand conditions and CPI inflation in the G7 countries are also determined by the exchange rate and property and share prices. Taking the UK as an example we discuss the implications of this finding for the conduct of monetary policy and show that disregarding asset price movements leads to a sub-optimal outcome for the economy in terms of inflation and output gap variability. This result not only obtains because the information contained in asset prices about future demand conditions is ignored, but also because their omission from the model introduces considerable biases, so that monetary policy would be based on a mis-specified model of the economy. We also show how a Financial Conditions Index (FCI), a weighted average of the short-term real interest rate, the real exchange rate, real property and real share prices can be derived based on the estimated models. The derived FCI appears to be a useful predictor of future CPI inflation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 with number 88.
Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Office of the Secretary-General, School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9AL, UK
Phone: +44 1334 462479
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.asp
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Castro, Vítor, 2008.
"Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
872, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Vítor Castro, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," NIPE Working Papers 19/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Sajawal Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2007.
"Measures of Monetary Policy Stance : The Case of Pakistan,"
Macroeconomics Working Papers
22201, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Sajawal Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Measures of Monetary Policy Stance: The Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:39, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
- Kim, J.W. & Leatham, D.J. & Bessler, D.A., 2007. "REITs' dynamics under structural change with unknown break points," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 37-58, March.
- Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather, 2013.
"Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: what does it tell us about the crisis?,"
Working Paper Series
1541, European Central Bank.
- Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather D., 2014. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 392-403.
- Eleni Angelopoulou & Hiona Balfoussia & Heather D. Gibson, 2012. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: what does it tell us about the crisis?," Working Papers 147, Bank of Greece.
- Mehrotra, Aaron & Koivu, Tuuli & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2008. "McCallum rule and Chinese monetary policy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Nisticò, Salvatore, 2012.
"Monetary policy and stock-price dynamics in a DSGE framework,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 126-146.
- Salvatore Nisticò, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Stock-Price Dynamics in a DSGE Framework," CSEF Working Papers 307, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Kasai, Ndahiriwe & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rules for South Africa," MPRA Paper 40699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2008. "Central banks and asset prices: the role of the interest rate in volatility correction in the Romanian case," MPRA Paper 16582, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jul 2009.
- Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.