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Anhaltende Divergenz bei Inflations- und Lohnentwicklung in der Eurozone: Gefahr für die Währungsunion?


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  • Sebastian Dullien
  • Ulrich Fritsche


In this paper we investigate if the actual debate on divergences in the Euro area is indeed a reason to be concerned. We argue that the standard definition of divergence in terms of standard deviations is too narrow to capture the persistence in deviations in output, prices and wages. Our analysis reveals that deviations are indeed persistent in the Euro area. To investigate a control group, we present results for unit labour cost dynamics in (West) Germany's Länder and the United States' federal states. The results show that the recent development in the Euro area is indeed special and potentially harmful. Dieser Aufsatz untersucht, inwieweit die jüngste Debatte um mögliche Divergenzen in der Eurozone tatsächlich einen Grund zur Besorgnis aufzählt. Dabei wird argumentiert, dass die häufig übliche Definition von Divergenzen als die Veränderung der Standardabweichung bei Inflation und Wirtschaftswachstum um den Euro-Mittelwert zu kurz greift, da diese Definition nicht die Persistenz in der Entwicklung aufzeigt und damit gefährliche Verschiebungen im Niveau von Wirtschaftsleistung und relativem Preis- und Lohnniveau nicht erfasst. Eine dementsprechende Analyse zeigt, dass die Divergenzen in der Eurozone tatsächlich sehr hartnäckig sind. In einem Vergleich mit der Entwicklung von Lohnstückkosten mit jenen zwischen US-Staaten und deutschen Bundesländern zeigt sich zudem, dass die aktuellen Entwicklungen in der Eurozone tatsächlich für eine Währungsunion ungewöhnlich und potenziell wirtschaftlich schädlich sind.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 76 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 56-76

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:76-4-6

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Keywords: Unit labor costs; inflation; EMU; convergence;

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Cited by:
  1. Oliver Landmann, 2009. "EMU@10: Coping with Rotating Slumps," Discussion Paper Series 9, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Jul 2009.
  2. Afflatet, Nicolas, 2014. "European Monetary Policy in the Heterogeneous Currency Area and the Open Question of Convergence," EconStor Preprints 93382, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.


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