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Economic sentiment indicator and its information capability in the Czech Republic

Author

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  • Radka Martináková

    (Department of Finance, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Svatopluk Kapounek

    (Department of Finance, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The paper focuses on the indicators of economic agents' perceptions in the Czech Republic. We assume that these information are provided by economic sentiment indicator surveys based on the Joint Harmonised EU Programme. The aim of this paper is to offer the alternate methodology of qualitative data transformation (balance statistic data) in relation with the macroeconomic quantitative indicators.In the empirical analysis we distinguished between the indicators of confidence in industry, construction, retail and consumer confidence indicator. We found link between the aggregate economic sentiment indicator and economic activity. Especially, aggregate economic sentiment indicator copies the development of the GDP. However, partial indicators does not follow changes in the specific sectors of the economy. We also found that economic agents underestimate the intensity of the economic recession after the year 2007.Finally, we cannot recommend the economic sentiment indicator as the leading indicator of the future economic activity in the Czech Republic. Our methodological contribution is in quantifying of the consumer survey results by standardization.

Suggested Citation

  • Radka Martináková & Svatopluk Kapounek, 2013. "Economic sentiment indicator and its information capability in the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(7), pages 2491-2498.
    • Handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2013061072491
    DOI: 10.11118/actaun201361072491
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Foreign News and Spillovers in Emerging European Stock Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 170-188, February.
    2. Svatopluk Kapounek & Lubor Lacina, 2011. "Inflation Perceptions and Anticipations in the Old Eurozone Member States," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2), pages 120-139.
    3. Sarah Gelper & Christophe Croux, 2010. "On the Construction of the European Economic Sentiment Indicator," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 47-62, February.
    4. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2011. "Synchronization of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Euro Area: a time-frequency analysis," CEF.UP Working Papers 1105, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
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    Cited by:

    1. Deimante Teresiene & Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Yiyi Liao & Rasa Kanapickiene & Ruihui Pu & Siyan Hu & Xiao-Guang Yue, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Nataša Erjavec & Petar Soriæ & Mirjana Èižmešija, 2016. "Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia: Is economic sentiment the missing link?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 555-579.
    3. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
    4. Margareta ILIE, 2018. "Analysis Of Sentiment Indicator For The Euro Area (19 Countries) Under The Influence Of Four Management Indicators Using Graphical Representation," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 5, pages 302-322.

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