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Perceived and Measured Inflation after the Launch of the Euro: Explaining the Gap in Italy

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  • Paolo Del Giovane

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

  • Roberto Sabbatini

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Following the euro cash changeover, residents in the area perceived a much sharper increase in prices than the moderate rise recorded in official statistics. The paper shows that in Italy this gap can be explained for the most part by the stronger influence that large, upward, and frequently observed price movements exert on consumers’ perceptions, combined with the actual behaviour of prices in the wake of the changeover, when many prices did in fact change, with larger increases for the more frequently purchased products and exceptional rises in certain items. The interplay between public perceptions and media coverage also had a significant role. Finally, the perceived loss of purchasing power, especially for the least-well-off households, can be traced to economic phenomena that do not bear directly on official inflation but which households find it hard to consider separately, such as increases in house prices and the evolution of income.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University in its journal Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia.

Volume (Year): 65 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 155-192

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Handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v65_n2_p155-192

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Related research

Keywords: euro; inflation; perceptions;

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References

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  1. Johannes Hoffmann & Hans-Albert Leifer & Andreas Lorenz, 2006. "Index of Perceived Inflation or EU Consumer Surveys?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 142-150, May.
  2. Manfred Fluch & Helmut Stix, 2005. "Perceived Inflation in Austria – Extent, Explanations, Effects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 22–47.
  3. Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2004. "The Effects of the Euro-Conversion on Prices and Price Perceptions," Working Papers 101, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  4. Luis J. Álvarez & Pilar Cuadrado Salinas & Javier Jareño & Isabel Sánchez García, 2004. "El impacto de la puesta en circulación del euro sobre los precios de consumo," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0404, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Gaiotti, Eugenio & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "Pricing Behaviour and the Introduction of the Euro: Evidence from a Panel of Restaurants," CEPR Discussion Papers 4893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Veronese, Giovanni & Fabiani, Silvia & Gattulli, Angela & Sabbatini, Roberto, 2005. "Consumer price behaviour in Italy: evidence from micro CPI data," Working Paper Series 0449, European Central Bank.
  7. Boeri, Tito & Brandolini, Andrea, 2005. "The Age of Discontent: Italian Households at the Beginning of the Decade," IZA Discussion Papers 1530, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "Rational inattention, inflation developments and perceptions after the euro cash changeover," Working Paper Series 0588, European Central Bank.
  9. Golinelli Roberto & Parigi Giuseppe, 2005. "Le famiglie italiane e l'introduzione dell'euro: storia di uno shock annunciato," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 201-226.
  10. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
  11. Paolo Angelini & Francesco Lippi, 2006. "Did inflation really soar after the euro cash changeover? Indirect evidence from ATM withdrawals," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 581, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2006. "Euro or “Teuro”?: The Euro-induced Perceived Inflation in Germany," DQE Working Papers 5, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
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Cited by:
  1. Lunn, Pete & Duffy, David, 2010. "The Euro Through the Looking-Glass: Perceived Inflation Following the 2002 Currency Changeover," Papers WP338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  2. Tomás Slacík, 2008. "(How) Will the Euro Affect Inflation in the Czech Republic? A contribution to the current debate," FIW Working Paper series 018, FIW.
  3. Columba, Francesco, 2008. "The speed of euro adoption," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 249-259, March.
  4. Svatopluk Kapounek & Lubor Lacina, 2011. "Inflation Perceptions and Anticipations in the Old Eurozone Member States," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(2), pages 120-139.
  5. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Lein, 2010. "The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media," KOF Working papers 10-254, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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