Assessing Predictive Content of the KOF Barometer in Real Time
AbstractWe investigate whether the KOF Barometer–a leading indicator regularly released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute–can be useful for short-term out-of-sample prediction of year-on-year quarterly real GDP growth rates in Switzerland. We find that the KOF Barometer appears to be useful for prediction of GDP growth rates. Even the earliest forecasts, made seven months ahead of the first official GDP estimate, allow us to predict GDP growth rates more accurately than forecasts based on an univariate autoregressive model. At every subsequent forecast round as new monthly releases of the KOF Barometer become available we observe a steady increase in forecast accuracy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 10-249.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Leading indicators; forecasting; Bayesian model averaging; Switzerland;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-02-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2010-02-05 (Forecasting)
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