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Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence from Europe

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  • Bob McNabb
  • Karl Taylor

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Abstract

Using an under-utilised dataset on consumer and business confidence indicators across the UK, France, Italy and the Netherlands, this paper considers the extent to which such indicators are linked to GDP and the business cycle. We adopt, cross correlation descriptive statistics, Granger causality tests, variance decomposition, and forecast probit tests to investigate the properties of the data. In general consumer and business confidence indicators are leading indicators and pro-cyclical. There is some evidence of causality between the indicators and GDP and confidence indicators would appear to have good predictive power of cycle turning points in relation to other leading indicators.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 02/3.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:02/3

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Cited by:
  1. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 377-404, September.
  2. Mark Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2010. "Business confidence and cyclical turning points: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 229-233.
  3. Panagiotis Konstantinou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2010. "Boosting confidence: is there a role for fiscal policy?," Working Papers 113, Bank of Greece.
  4. Orlando Gomes, 2009. "On the stability of endogenous growth models: An evaluation of the agents' response to output fluctuations," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 17-35, January.
  5. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2012. "Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe with a view to adopting the euro," Working Papers 12-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  6. GORMUS Sakir & GUNES, Sevcan, 2010. "Consumer Confidence, Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: The Case Of Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
  7. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Economics Working Papers 2008,07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  8. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
  9. Jaba Ghonghadze & Thomas Lux, 2009. "Modeling the Dynamics of EU Economic Sentiment Indicators: An Interaction-Based Approach," Kiel Working Papers 1487, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  10. Gaston Giordana & Ingmar Schumacher, 2012. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Leverage in Monetary Financial Institutions: Comparing European countries and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 77, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  11. Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.
  12. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Andreas Tsiaklis, 2011. "An Analysis of Firms’ Expectations about Activity and Employment," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 5(1), pages 71-85, June.
  13. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Canzian, Giulia, 2011. "The psychology of inflation, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 660-670.

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