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Debt and Financial Expectations: An Individual- and Household-Level Analysis

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Author Info
Sarah Brown
Gaia Garino
Karl Taylor
Stephen Wheatley Price

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Abstract

In this article we show that optimistic financial expectations impact positively on both the quantity of debt and the growth in debt at the individual and household levels. Our theoretical model shows that this association is predicted under a variety of plausible scenarios. In the empirical analysis we explore the determinants of debt and of growth in debt using British data. We find convincing support for our theoretical priors and show that it is optimistic financial expectations per se that are important in influencing debt, rather than the accuracy of individuals' predictions regarding their future financial situation. (JEL D18, D84, D91) Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ei/cbi008
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 43 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 100-120
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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:43:y:2005:i:1:p:100-120

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D18 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Protection
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Peter Simmons & Karl Taylor, 2008. "Debt and Risk Preference: A Household Level Analysis," Working Papers 2008005, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2006. "Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis," Working Papers 2006006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lucia Dunn & Tufan Ekici, 2006. "Credit Card Debt and Consumption: Evidence from Household-Level Data," Working Papers 06-01, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Herrala, Risto & Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Household loan loss risk in Finland – estimations and simulations with micro data," Research Discussion Papers 5/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mario Alejandro Gónzalez & John Jairo León, 2007. "Análisis del Endeudamiento de los Hogares Colombianos," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004020, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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