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Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts

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  • Vuchelen, Jef
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Psychology.

    Volume (Year): 25 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 4 (August)
    Pages: 493-506

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:25:y:2004:i:4:p:493-506

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/joep

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78.
    2. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
    3. Van Raaij, W. Fred & Gianotten, Henk J., 1990. "Consumer confidence, expenditure, saving, and credit," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 269-290, June.
    4. Fan, Chengze Simon & Wong, Phoebe, 1998. "Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending?: The Hong Kong case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 77-84, January.
    5. Abeele, P. Vanden, 1983. "The index of consumer sentiment: Predictability and predictive power in the EEC," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17.
    6. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 32-44.
    7. Adrian W. Throop, 1992. "Consumer sentiment: its causes and effects," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 35-59.
    8. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
    9. Berg Lennart & Bergström Reinhold, 1996. "Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    10. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    11. Kamakura, Wagner A. & Gessner, Guy, 1986. "Consumer sentiment and buying intentions revisited: a comparison of predictive usefulness," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-220, June.
    12. repec:fth:eeccco:116 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Teresa Santero & Niels Westerlund, 1996. "Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 170, OECD Publishing.
    14. Praet, Peter & Vuchelen, Jef, 1989. "The contribution of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting the effects of oil prices on private consumption," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 393-397.
    15. Praet, Peter, 1985. "Endogenizing consumers' expectations in four major EC countries," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-269, September.
    16. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March.
    17. Djerf, Kari & Takala, Kari, 1997. "Macroeconomy and Consumer Sentiment: Performance of the Finnish Consumer Barometer after Ten Years," Research Discussion Papers 20/1997, Bank of Finland.
    18. Daron Acemoglu & Andrew Scott, 1993. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0119, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
    20. van Raaij, W. Fred, 1989. "Economic news, expectations and macro-economic behaviour," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 473-493.
    21. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    22. Rich, Robert W & Butler, J S, 1998. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty: A Comment on Bomberger," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 411-19, August.
    23. Garner, C. Alan, 1981. "Economic determinants of consumer sentiment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 205-220, June.
    24. Martha Starr-McCluer, 1999. "The measurement of consumer expectations using survey data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Praet, Peter & Vuchelen, Jozef, 1984. "The contribution of E.C. consumer surveys in forecasting consumer expenditures: An econometric analysis for four major countries," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 101-124, June.
    26. F. Thomas Juster & Paul Wachtel, 1972. "Inflation and the Consumer," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(1), pages 71-122.
    27. Maria W. Otoo, 1999. "Consumer sentiment and the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Parigi, Giuseppe & Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1997. "Predicting consumption of Italian households by means of survey indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 197-209, June.
    29. Saul H. Hymans, 1970. "Consumer Durable Spending: Explanation and Prediction," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(2), pages 173-206.
    30. C. Alan Garner, 1991. "Forecasting consumer spending: should economists pay attention to consumer confidence surveys?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue May, pages 57-71.
    31. Vuchelen, Jef, 1995. "Political events and consumer confidence in Belgium," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 563-579, December.
    32. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. Croce, Roberto M. & Haurin, Donald R., 2009. "Predicting turning points in the housing market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 281-293, December.
    2. Hollanders, D.A. & Vliegenthart, R., 2009. "The Influence of Negative Newspaper Coverage on Consumer Confidence: The Dutch Case," Discussion Paper 2009-55, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
    4. Hollanders, D.A., 2012. "The effect of aging on pensions," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5556748, Tilburg University.
    5. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
    6. Hollanders, David & Vliegenthart, Rens, 2011. "The influence of negative newspaper coverage on consumer confidence: The Dutch case," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 367-373, June.
    7. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.

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