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Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?

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Author Info
Daron Acemoglu
Andrew Scott

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Abstract

Consumer confidence is found to have predictive content for a wide range of macroeconomic variables including consumption growth, contrary to standard REPIH. We find that on UK data the REPIH is rejected due to the predictive content of consumer confidence, and not labour income. We explain this finding in terms of precautionary behaviour. Extending the Hansen and Singleton Consumption CAPM model to allow a conditional variance we find a high level of confidence is associated with both greater optimism about the level of consumption and greater uncertainty about the forecaster variance. Once allowance is made for time aggregation the over identifying restrictions implied by this model are accepted. We estimate a small but statistically significant intertemporal elasticity of substitution.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0119.

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Date of creation: Feb 1993
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0119

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  1. Saito, Makoto & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2003. "Precautionary Motives versus Waiting Options: Evidence from Aggregate Household Saving in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 1-20, October. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dohmen, Thomas J & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David & Sunde, Uwe, 2006. "Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Perceptions and Expectations - The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 5851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Berg Lennart & Bergström Reinhold, 1996. "Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Claudio Soto, 2004. "Unemployment and Consumption in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 258, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Atsuo Utaka, 2003. "Confidence and the real economy - the Japanese case," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 337-342, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Côté, Denise & Johnson, Marianne, 1998. "Consumer Attitudes, Uncertainty, and Consumer Spending," Working Papers 98-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. Luis Opazo, 2006. "The Backus-Smith Puzzle: The Role of Expectations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 395, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  10. Henley, A, 1996. "Changes in the Distribution of Housing Wealth in Great Britain 1985- 1991," Working Papers 96-08, University of Wales, Aberystwyth, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Allison Holland & Andrew Scott, . "The determinants of UK business cycles," Bank of England working papers 58, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Johansson, Martin W, 2002. "Reexamining loss aversion in aggregate consumption - Swedish and international evidence," Working Papers 2002:2, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2006. "Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis," Working Papers 2006006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Khoon Lek Goh, 2003. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand?," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/22, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  15. David Begg & Stephany Griffith-Jones, 1998. "Swinging since the 60's: Fluctuations in UK Saving and Lessons for Latin America," RES Working Papers 3032, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2006. "Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Economic Perceptions and Expectations: The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 2275, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  17. Marco Malgarini & Patrizia Margani, 2005. "Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures: a disaggregated analysis," ISAE Working Papers 58, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  18. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  19. Martin Sommer & Christopher Carroll, 2004. "Epidemiological expectations and consumption dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 92, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  20. K. H. McIntyre, 2007. "Reconciling Consumer Confidence and Permanent Income Consumption," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 257-275, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  21. repec:bep:macadv:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1444-1444 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Paolo carnazza & Giuseppe Parigi, 2001. "The Evolution of Confidence for European Consumers and Businesses in France, Germany and Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 406, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  23. Khoon Lek Goh & Richard Downing, 2002. "Modelling New Zealand Consumption Expenditure over the 1990s," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/19, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  24. Lucia Dunn & Ida Mirzaie, 2004. "Turns in Consumer Confidence: An Information Advantage Linked To Manufacturing," Working Papers 04-03, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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