A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1
AbstractReal M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Predicting recessions; Probit; narrow money; real M1; euro area;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005.
"Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
- Ivan Paya & Agustín Duarte & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Predicting Real Growth And The Probability Of Recession In The Euro Area Using The Yield Spread," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-31, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
- Sauer, Christine & Scheide, Joachim, 1995. "Money, interest rate spreads, and economic activity," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1664, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001.
"Forecasting recessions using the yield curve,"
134, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Seitz, Franz & Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 0254, European Central Bank.
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