A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1
AbstractReal M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Predicting recessions; Probit; narrow money; real M1; euro area;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
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