Predicting Output and Inflation in Less Developed Financial Markets Using the Yield Curve: Evidence from Malaysia
AbstractThis paper investigates the role of the term spread to predict domestic output and inflation in less developed financial market with the focus on Malaysia bond market. By controlling for past values of the dependent variable, this paper finds that the term spread of various bond maturities contain relevant information about future output and inflation at short horizons. Besides that, we employ a probit model to assess the ability for the yield curve to predict future economic slowdown. The results suggest that the term spread has contributed significantly in the probability of predicting future economic slowdown. Despite the under-developed bond market, the findings point to the potential for bond yields to play a greater role in monetary analysis beyond conventional indicators. From the policy point of views, the results from our analysis suggest that there is a significant potential for incorporating more technical and model based approaches using the yield curve beyond the usual indicator analysis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29039.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Term spread; Forecasting; Monetary Policy; Malaysia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-03-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2011-03-05 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-03-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-03-05 (Monetary Economics)
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