Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability
AbstractThis paper estimates, using stochastic simulation and a multicountry macroeconometric model, the fraction of the forecast-error variance of output changes and the fraction of the forecast-error variance of inflation that are due to unpredictable asset-price changes. The results suggest that between about 25 and 37 percent of the forecast-error variance of output growth over 8 quarters is due to asset-price changes and between about 33 and 60 percent of the forecast-error variance of inflation over 8 quarters is due to asset-price changes. These estimates provide limits to the accuracy that can be expected from macroeconomic forecasting.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1706.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision: Aug 2010
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-07-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2009-07-03 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2009-07-03 (Macroeconomics)
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