This file is part of IDEAS , which uses RePEc data
[ Papers |
Articles |
Software |
Books |
Chapters |
Authors |
Institutions |
JEL Classification |
NEP reports |
Search |
New papers by email |
Author registration |
Rankings |
Volunteers |
FAQ |
Blog |
Help! ]
Predicting Interwar Business Cycles with the Interest Rate Yield Spread Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics James L. Butkiewicz ()
Kim Lane Leong Long (Department of Economics, University of Delaware)
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
Recent studies have demonstrated the ability of the interest rate yield spread to predict post-war business cycles. This same methodology is applied to the prediction of interwar business cycles in the United States and the United Kingdom. The spread predicts the early interwar cycles, although the lag in the United States is variable. The spread fails to provide a prediction of the 1937-1938 recession and the length of the depression in either country. Neither spread improves the recession forecast for the other country.
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page . Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Paper provided by University of Delaware, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number
03-07.
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
(with abstract ),
plain text
(with abstract ),
BibTeX ,
RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite),
ReDIF
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2003Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dlw:wpaper:03-07Contact details of provider: Postal: Purnell Hall, Newark, Delaware 19716 Fax: (302) 831-6968 Web page: http://www.lerner.udel.edu/departments/economics/ More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Saul Hoffman).
Keywords: Business Cycles ; Yield Spread ; Great Depression ; Find related papers by JEL classification: J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991.
"Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective ,"
NBER Working Papers
3400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Bernanke, Ben S, 1983.
"Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
" The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Hamilton, James D., 1987.
"Monetary factors in the great depression ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Davis, E Philip & Fagan, Gabriel, 1997.
"Are Financial Spreads Useful Indicators of Future Inflation and Output Growth in EU Countries? ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 701-14, Nov.-Dec..
[Downloadable!]
Harvey, Campbell R., 1988.
"The real term structure and consumption growth ,"
Journal of Financial Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002.
"A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread ,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-60, May.
Other versions: Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999.
"Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators ,"
NBER Working Papers
5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Cecchetti, Stephen G & Karras, Georgios, 1994.
"Sources of Output Fluctuations during the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 80-102, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Barry Eichengreen & Peter Temin, 1997.
"The Gold Standard and the Great Depression ,"
NBER Working Papers
6060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Romer, Christina D, 1990.
"The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression ,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ,
MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624, August.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997.
"The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank ,"
European Economic Review ,
Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles N. Evans, 1997.
"Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression ,"
NBER Working Papers
6071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 1997.
"Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression ,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
591, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
[Downloadable!] Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 1997.
"Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression ,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
WP-97-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
[Downloadable!] Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 2000.
"Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1447-1463, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994.
"International term structures and real economic growth ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full
references
Access and
download statistics Did you know? Authors can create their own profile with links to their works on the RePEc Author Service .
This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics , College of Liberal Arts and Sciences , University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics .