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Modelling Business Cycle Movements in the UK Economy

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Author Info
Simpson, Paul W
Osborn, Denise R
Sensier, Marianne

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Abstract

This paper models the phases of the UK business cycle using GDP data with a time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) Markov-switching regime model and exogenous leading indicator variables. Single indicators in linear models are compared with the TVTP framework, with logistic and exponential functions used in the latter. The Markov-switching models capture the major recessions of the sample, but the use of leading indicators through the TVTP framework can improve this regime recognition. Finally, a forecast comparison shows that the TVTP models perform relatively well in predicting during the 1990s, particularly when nominal interest rates are used to generate the regime-switching probabilities. Copyright 2001 by The London School of Economics and Political Science

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Publisher Info
Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 68 (2001)
Issue (Month): 270 (May)
Pages: 243-67
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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:68:y:2001:i:270:p:243-67

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  1. Denise R. Osborn & Paul W. Simpson, 2000. "Forecasting UK Industrial Production Over the Business Cycle," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1059, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2000. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 02, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  3. M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 11, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  4. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  5. M Sensier & D R Osborn & N Öcal, 2002. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 10, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A view Throught Non-Linear Models," Borradores de Economia 186, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2008-11-27.

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