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Stock Returns, Term Structure, Inflation and Real Activity: An International Perspective

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Author Info
Fabio Canova ()
Gianni de Nicolo

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Abstract

This paper analyses the empirical interdependences among asset returns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and international point of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly related to inflation only in the US, that the US term structure of interest rates predicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign term structures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflation and exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financial variables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implications of the results are provided.

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File URL: http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/papers/downloads/203.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 203.

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Date of creation: Jan 1997
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:203

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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Related research
Keywords: Transmission; business cycles; international stock returns; financial markets;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  1. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 11, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Canova, Fabio, 2003. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America," CEPR Discussion Papers 3963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alois Geyer & Richard Mader, 1999. "Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates; A Parametric Approach," Working Papers 37, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  5. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Comovements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and timevarying conditional correlations," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0805, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Alexandros Kontonikas & Christos Ioannidis, 2003. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Price Misalignments?," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-19, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2007. "What tames the Celtic tiger? portfolio implications from a multivariate Markov switching model," Working Papers 2006-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Fabio Canova, 2003. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Economics Working Papers 925, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sònia Muñoz, 2006. "Wealth Effects in Europe: A Tale of Two Countries (Italy and the United Kingdom)," IMF Working Papers 06/30, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Araújo, Eurilton, 2008. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Co-movement of Stock Returns in Latin America," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_111, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
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