The Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates

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The Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates

Author Info

Roma, Antonio
Torous, Walter

Abstract

This article investigates the behavior of the term structure of interest rates over the business cycle. In contrast to prior studies that measure the business cycle by the simple growth in aggregate economic activity, the authors consider the deviation of aggregate economic activity from its potentially stochastic trend. They show that incorporating both an independent trend and cyclical component in consumption improves the efficiency in estimating consumption-based asset pricing models. The authors also find that the term spread is more informative about future changes in stochastically detrended real gross domestic product (GDP) than future growth rates in real GDP. Copyright 1997 by American Finance Association.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 52 (1997)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1519-42
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:52:y:1997:i:4:p:1519-42

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M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 11, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0202, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
- Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997," Working Paper 0402, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 10431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Michael Bordo & Joseph Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 165, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
Eduardo Schwartz & Walter Torous, 1999. "Can We Disentangle Risk Aversion from Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1101, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2000. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 02, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Chris R. Birchenhall & Marianne Sensier & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Predicting Uk Business Cycle Regimes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 134, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Chris Birchenhall & Marianne Sensier, 2000. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0953, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
- Birchenhall, Chris R & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2001. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 179-95, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
C.R. McKenzie & Sumiko Takaoka, 2004. "The Impact of Bank Entry in the Japanese Corporate Bond Underwriting Market," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 128, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]

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