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Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: The Case of the Accession Countries

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Author Info
Babetskii, Ian
Boone, Laurence
Maurel, Mathilde

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Abstract

This Paper reviews the pros and cons of an early EU enlargement towards Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs hereafter). First, the Maastricht criteria, which cannot be literally assessed during the catching up process, but that nevertheless mirror the huge efforts undertaken in order to (i) stabilise the economies, (ii) converge towards the EU, and then (iii) participate into the EMU, are analysed. Second, real convergence is observed to occur at different rates, depending upon the initial conditions faced and the productivity gains realised by each country. Third, computing the correlation of demand and supply shocks in a wide sample of Euro countries and the CEECs, gives some indication of the similarity of the business cycles and economic structures of the CEECs on the one hand, and the EU on the other. Yet, we argue that looking at static correlation only (averaged over the last decade) is too simplistic, as the transition process will blur these averages. Using the Kalman filter, we are able to compute time varying correlation, hence differentiating between the transition and the most recent period. Our results emphasise an ongoing process of demand shocks convergence, but supply shocks divergence. Various exchange rate strategies are then discussed.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3408.

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Date of creation: Jun 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3408

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Related research
Keywords: EU enlargement; exchange rate regimes; kalman filter; OCA (optimal currency area) criteria;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stefaan Ide & Philippe Moës, 2004. "Asymetric growth and inflation developments in the acceding countries: a new assessment," Research series 200411-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2003. "Economic integration, similarity and convergence in the EU and CEECs trade structures," CESPRI Working Papers 148, CESPRI, Centre for Research on Innovation and Internationalisation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth: Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jérôme Trotignon, 2005. "Les pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale sont-ils fortement exposés aux chocs sectoriels et géographiques vis-à-vis de la zone euro ?," Post-Print halshs-00161687_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  6. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Sáiz Matute, Lorena, 2005. "Are European Business Cycles Close Enough to be Just One?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Balazs Egert & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Inflation Differentials in Europe: Past Experience and Future Prospects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 47-72, May. [Downloadable!]
  8. Maurel Mathilde, 2004. "Financial integration, exchange rate regimes in CEECs, and joining the EMU : Just do it..," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04027a, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  9. Ramon Maria-Dolores & Jose Garcia-Solanes, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes for the New Member States of the European Union," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 306, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ansgar Belke & Leo Kaas, 2004. "Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies," Empirica, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 247-280, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Belke, Ansgar & Heine, Jens M., 2004. "Specialisation Patterns and the Synchronicity of Regional Employment Cycles in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 1439, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Iikka Korhonen & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The euro goes East. Implications of the 2000-2002 economic slowdown for synchronisation of business cycles between the euro area and CEEs," Macroeconomics 0305007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Julius Horvath, 2004. "Optimum currency area theory: A selective review," Macroeconomics 0401014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Ansgar Belke & Jens Heine, 2007. "On the endogeneity of an exogenous OCA-criterion: specialisation and the correlation of regional business cycles in Europe," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 15-44, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Christian Fahrholz, 2003. "Strategic Exchange-Rate Policy of Accession Countries in ERM II," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp14, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Apr 2003. [Downloadable!]
  17. Hanns-Dieter Jacobsen et. al, 2004. "Economic, Political, Institutional as well as Social Risks and Opportunities of EMU Enlargement," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp22, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Costs of Exchange Rate Volatility for Labour Markets - Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 267–292. [Downloadable!]
  19. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Variability and Labor Market Performance in the Visegrád Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-175, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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