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Impacts economiques et sociaux de l'elargissement pour l'Union europeenne et la France

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Mohamed Hedi Bchir
Mathilde Maurel

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Abstract

Les consequences economiques de l'elargissement de l'UE aux PECO, en France et dans le reste de l'UE a quinze, font l'objet de quatre simulations a l'aide du modele d'equilibre general calculable, MIRAGE. On suppose d'abord que les barrieres residuelles aux echanges sont supprimees, on ajoute ensuite une hypothese d'integration des marches dans laquelle les decisions d'investissement se prennent sur un marche dont la taille a augmente a la suite de l'elargissement. Dans le troisieme scenario on suppose que l'adhesion des Peco se traduit par une augmentation exogene de la productivite totale des facteurs. Enfin on examine les effets de cet elargissement pour la PAC au moyen de deux scenarios: les aides sont redistribuees a montant global inchange, l'augmentation des aides s'effectue au prorata de la taille du secteur concerne dans les pays candidats.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2002-03.

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Date of creation: Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-03

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Related research
Keywords: Transition; EU enlargement; Computed general equilibrium model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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  1. Alain Jousten & Florence Legros, 2002. "Pensions and Savings in a Monetary Union: an Analysis of Capital Flows," Working Papers 2002-06, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jan Babetski & Laurence Boone & Mathilde Maurel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: the Case of the Accession Countries," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp206, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Miren Lafourcade & Thierry Mayer, 2003. "Can Business and Social Networks Explain the Border Effect Puzzle?," Working Papers 2003-02, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahreche-Revil & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies," Working Papers 2004-15, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Agnes Benassy-Quere & Lionel Fontagne & Amina Lahreche-Revil, 2003. "Tax Competition and Foreign Direct Investment," Working Papers 2003-17, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  7. Anindya Banerjee & Paolo Zanghieri, 2003. "A New Look at the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle using an Integrated Panel," Working Papers 2003-22, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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