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Konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása a régi és új EU-tagországokban
[Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states]

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Author Info

  • Darvas, Zsolt
  • Szapáry, György

Abstract

Általában elfogadott vélekedés, hogy egy pénzügyi unióhoz csatlakozó országoknak rendelkezniük kell az úgynevezett optimális valutaövezeti tulajdonságokkal. E tulajdonságok között szerepel a konjunktúraciklusok egybeesése. Tanulmányunk azt elemzi, hogy milyen mértékben hasonlítanak egymáshoz a gazdasági ciklusok az EMU tagországaiban és abban a nyolc új EU-tag közép-kelet-európai országban, amelyek integrációjában a következő lépés az EMU-hoz való csatlakozás lesz. A témában született tanulmányok többsége a GDP és az ipari termelés adatait használta, mi ezeken túlmenően a GDP főbb felhasználási és ágazati összetevőit is megvizsgáltuk, és a hasonlóságok fokának mérésére több mérőszámot is alkalmaztunk. Míg Magyarország, Lengyelország és Szlovénia konjunktúraciklusai a GDP, az ipari termelés és az export terén nagymértékben közelednek az EMU-tagországok ciklusaihoz, ugyanez nem mondható el a fogyasztásról és a szolgáltatásokról. A többi közép-kelet-európai országban kevésbé vagy egyáltalán nem beszélhetünk a konjunktúraciklusok egybeeséséről. Az EMU tagországaiban az EMU-hoz való csatlakozás előkészítésének kezdete óta a GDP és annak fontos összetevői is egyre nagyobb mértékben összehangolódtak. Bár ez az eredmény alátámasztja az optimális valutaövezetek kialakulásának endogén természetét, de a világméretű konjunktúraciklus erősödése mellett is találtunk bizonyítékot. Tanulmányunk egy további fontos eredménye az, hogy bár az úgynevezett fogyasztáskorreláció rejtélye továbbra is fennáll, annak mértéke az EMU-tagországokban jelentősen csökkent, amely jó hír a közös monetáris politika szempontjából. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E32, F41.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

Volume (Year): LI (2004)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 415-448

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Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:682

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Cited by:
  1. Csaba, László, 2006. "A stabilitási és növekedési egyezmény új politikai gazdaságtanáról
    [On the new political economy of the Stability and Growth Pact]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 1-30.
  2. Mihályi, Péter, 2005. "Jó úton járunk? Magyarország euróstratégiája
    [Are we on the right track? Hungary s Euro strategy]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 712-731.

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