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EMU and Accession Countries: Fuzzy Cluster Analysis of Membership

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  • Dimitri Boreiko

    (Department of Economics, European University Institute, Via dei Roccettini, 9, San Domenico (FI), 50016, Italy.)

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    Abstract

    This paper estimates the readiness of the Accession Countries of Central and East Europe for EMU or for unilateral euroisation using a fuzzy clustering algorithm. The variables to which the algorithm is applied are suggested alternately by the criteria in the Maastricht Treaty (nominal convergence) and by Optimum Currency Area theory (real convergence). The algorithm reveals that Estonia and Slovenia are the leaders in both nominal and real convergence, whereas the other countries from the 1998 Accession Wave have achieved substantial results only in real convergence. Moreover, Poland is excluded from the leading group in the most recent years due to its worsened economic performance.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 71.

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    Length: 42
    Date of creation: 12 Aug 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:71

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    Keywords: CEECs; Optimum currency area; EMU; fuzzy cluster analysis; nominal and real convergence.;

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    1. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5th597st, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    5. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
    6. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Beyer, Andreas & Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F, 2001. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F102-21, February.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
    9. Barry Eichengreen & Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "EMU and Enlargement," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 481, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 May 2001.
    10. Fabrizio Coricelli & Boštjan Jazbec, 2004. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in the Accession to the EMU," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 4-22, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ralph Setzer & Ansgar Belke, 2004. "Incertitude sur le taux de change et chômage dans les pays candidats : un argument pour l’euroïsation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 63-74.
    2. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Sõrg, Mart, 2004. "Estonian Monetary System: Reconstruction, Performance, and Future Prospects," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 11/2004, Ernst Moritz Arndt University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Setzer, Ralph, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth: Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," IZA Discussion Papers 1038, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Tanasie, Anca & Fratostiteanu, Cosmin, 2007. "Romania And The Euro. A Relative Positioning Among The Candidates," MPRA Paper 5832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Variability and Labor Market Performance in the Visegrád Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-175, June.
    7. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Leo Kaas, 2004. "Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 247-280, June.
    9. Jerome Trotignon, 2005. "EMU Enlargement to Include CEE Countries: Risks of Sector-based and Geographical Asymmetric Shocks," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 3-21.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:44:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs: What do we know – and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Costs of Exchange Rate Volatility for Labour Markets - Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 267–292.
    13. Jérôme Trotignon, 2005. "Les pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale sont-ils fortement exposés aux chocs sectoriels et géographiques vis-à-vis de la zone euro ?," Post-Print halshs-00161687, HAL.

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