Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Business cycle convergence in EMU: A second look at the second moment

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jes?s Crespo-Cuaresma

    ()

  • Octavio Fern?ndez-Amador

    ()

Abstract

We analyse the dynamics of the standard deviation of demand shocks and of the demand component of GDP across countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU). This analysis allows us to evaluate the patterns of cyclical comovement in EMU and put them in contrast to the cyclical performance of the new members of the EU and other OECD countries. We use the methodology put forward in Crespo-Cuaresma and Fern?ndez-Amador (2010), which makes use of sigma-convergence methods to identify synchronization patterns in business cycles. The Eurozone has converged to a stable lower level of dispersion across business cycles during the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s. The new EU members have also experienced a strong pattern of convergence from 1998 to 2005, when a strong divergence trend appears. An enlargement of the EMU to 22 members would not decrease its optimality as a currency area. There is evidence for some European idiosyncrasy as opposed to a world-wide comovement.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/wopec2/repec/inn/wpaper/2010-25.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck in its series Working Papers with number 2010-25.

as in new window
Length: 47
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2010-25

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Universitätsstraße 15, A - 6020 Innsbruck
Phone: 0512/507-7151
Fax: 0512/507-2788
Email:
Web page: http://www.uibk.ac.at/fakultaeten/volkswirtschaft_und_statistik/index.html.en
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Business cycle synchronization; structural VAR; demand shocks; European Monetary Union;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jan Svejnar, 2001. "Transition Economies: Performances and Challenges," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 415, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
  4. Dellas, Harris & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "An optimum-currency-area odyssey," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1117-1137, November.
  5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the Euro Area and the CEECs," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 77, Royal Economic Society.
  6. Petroulas, Pavlos, 2007. "The effect of the euro on foreign direct investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1468-1491, August.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
  9. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Wolfgang Keller, 2001. "International Technology Diffusion," NBER Working Papers 8573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Global Bond Portfolios and EMU," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
  13. Dées, Stéphane & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2010. "Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model," Working Paper Series 1239, European Central Bank.
  14. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
  15. Kocenda, Evzen, 2001. "Macroeconomic Convergence in Transition Countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-23, March.
  16. Lichtenberg, Frank R, 1994. "Testing the Convergence Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 576-79, August.
  17. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  18. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," Econometrics 0403006, EconWPA.
  19. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
  20. Huchet, Marilyne, 2003. "Does single monetary policy have asymmetric real effects in EMU?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 151-178, February.
  21. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. ""New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?," Working Paper Series 0138, European Central Bank.
  22. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  23. Martin Carree & Luuk Klomp, 1997. "Testing The Convergence Hypothesis: A Comment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 683-686, November.
  24. Brouwer, Jelle & Paap, Richard & Viaene, Jean-Marie, 2008. "The trade and FDI effects of EMU enlargement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 188-208, March.
  25. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Octavio Fernández-Amador, 2010. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," FIW Working Paper series 054, FIW.
  26. Lein, Sarah M. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nerlich, Carolin, 2008. "How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 227-248, March.
  27. James Mitchell & Michael Massmann, 2004. "Reconsidering the evidence: are Eurozone business cycles converging?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 67, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  28. McKinnon, Ronald, 2000. "Mundell, the Euro, and the World Dollar Standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 311-324, May.
  29. Pedro Perez & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "Business cycle affiliations in the context of European integration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 199-214.
  30. Mark M. Spiegel, 2008. "Monetary and financial integration in the EMU: Push or pull?," Working Paper Series 2008-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  31. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "A Formal Model of Optimum Currency Areas," IMF Working Papers 94/42, International Monetary Fund.
  32. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "EMU enlargement, stabilization costs and insurance mechanisms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 169-187, March.
  33. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
  34. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2009. "Changes in behaviour under EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 751-759, July.
  35. Ren�e Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-60, December.
  36. Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro, 2006. "Are labour markets in the new member states sufficiently flexible for EMU?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1393-1407, May.
  37. Ferré, Montserrat, 2008. "Fiscal policy coordination in the EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 221-235.
  38. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
  39. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
  40. Angeloni, Ignazio & Dedola, Luca, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 0004, European Central Bank.
  41. Masten, Arjana Brezigar & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Masten, Igor, 2008. "Non-linear growth effects of financial development: Does financial integration matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 295-313, March.
  42. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
  43. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
  44. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2005. "Real and nominal stochastic convergence: Are the new EU members ready to join the Euro zone?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 387-400, June.
  45. De Grauwe, Paul & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 0468, European Central Bank.
  46. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-36, March.
  47. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro’s trade effects," Working Paper Series 0594, European Central Bank.
  48. Foster, Neil & Stehrer, Robert, 2007. "Modeling transformation in CEECs using smooth transitions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 57-86, March.
  49. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  50. G�rard Roland, 2002. "The Political Economy of Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 29-50, Winter.
  51. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  52. Maria Caporale, Guglielmo & M. Soliman, Alaa, 2009. "The Asymmetric Effects of a Common Monetary Policy in Europe," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 455-475.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Maria Jesús Delgado-Rodriguez & Sonia De lucas-Santos, 2013. "Testing cyclical convergence with the factor model in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2245-2250.
  2. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2013. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2013," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as13 edited by Jakub Mateju & Kamila Kulhava.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2010-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janette Walde).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.